Fantasy Upside
Dion Lewis comes over to the Titans after having his most productive NFL season last year in New England, where he rushed for nearly 900 yards and caught 32 passes for another 200+ yards. He also scored nine times, which is not something you see a lot from 5-foot-8, 190-pound runners. He takes over the DeMarco Murray role as the pairing with Derrick Henry, and as we've seen in the past couple of years, Murray has been the more valuable player, particularly in PPR leagues.
Fantasy Downside
Sharing carries is never a good thing, especially when you're the smaller of the two guys. While Lewis is the better receiver, Henry should get the lion's share of carries at the goal line, meaning Lewis getting nine scores again this season isn't likely. He's also got a very lengthy injury history.
2018 Bottom Line
Lewis will be a boom-or-bust fantasy back. Many will remember what he did last season in New England and overdraft him. In fact, his current ADP seeing him being drafted in rounds 6-7. That means he is being taken as a No. 2 or No. 3 running back. I'd consider him as a low-end No. 3 option, but I don't want a guy in a timeshare who isn't going to be the goal-line player and also has a long injury history. That changes a great deal in PPR leagues. After all, Murray had 39 catches compared to 11 for Henry a year ago. But in my eyes, Henry is the better, more stable back than Lewis, who turns 28 in September. That doesn't mean Lewis won't produce. I just think he'll be drafted higher than his actual value.
Super Bowl vs. Philadelphia Eagles
What matters in this different one-game format is not so much how many points we project each player for but how much each player costs per point. In FanDuel's half-point PPR format, here's how we value the running backs in terms of dollar/FanDuel point: Rex Burkhead>Jay Ajayi>Dion Lewis>LeGarrette Blount>Corey Clement>James Develin.
As for DraftKings' full PPR scoring, here's how we value the running backs in terms of dollar/DraftKings point: Jay Ajayi>Rex Burkhead>Dion Lewis>James White>LeGarrette Blount>Corey Clement>James Develin.
AFC Conference Championship vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
There is some mystery to how healthy Tom Brady is going into the conference championship game because of an apparent injury to his right hand. Reports out of New England range from Brady is okay to it will affect him slightly. Either way, running the ball is the best way to attack the Jaguars defense, as they rank just 24th in aFPA vs. RBs. Dion Lewis' workload is safe but recall he still didn't get the goal-line work last week with, of all players, Brandon Bolden stealing points near the goal line. He's still a solid value based on volume and matchup.
Divisional Round vs. Tennessee Titans
The Patriots have the highest implied team total as 14-point home favorites in Vegas this week, and that total is a fantasy juicy 31 points. This is also a pass funnel defense as the Titans run defense finished fourth in the NFL. Rex Burkhead (knee) was limited Wednesday and Thursday with reports indicating he was still favoring the injury. It could very well be the Dion Lewis show again this week with heavy volume and extra second half action in a positive game script. Lewis is fully in play as an upper-tier fantasy option this week.
Week 17 vs. New York Jets
The Patriots are still playing for home-field advantage this week, which makes their starters viable in fantasy for Week 17. The Patriots also have the highest implied team total in Vegas this week at 29 points. Plus, Dion Lewis turned into a bell cow back in Week 16 with Rex Burkhead out—29 touches for 153 total yards and 2 touchdowns. He's a high-end RB1 in Week 17.
Week 16 vs. Buffalo Bills
The Patriots have the highest implied team total in Vegas this week at 29.5 points, and the Bills defense is a run funnel, ranking seventh in aFPA versus QBs but dead last in aFPA versus RBs. Plus, Rex Burkhead sprained his knee and is likely out. All of this is setting up for Dion Lewis to have a monster game. He's already averaged more than 13 PPR points over the past six weeks and could see a few more targets with Rex Burkhead injured. Start him with extreme confidence this week.
Week 15 at Pittsburgh Steelers
Despite the loss in Miami last week, the Patriots are still favored in Pittsburgh with the second-highest implied team total in Vegas this week at 28.25 points. Over the past four weeks, the Steelers have also allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to the RB position, including 6 total touchdowns. We saw what a negative game script can do though to Dion Lewis last week, playing only 18 snaps and getting only 10 touches, his fewest since Week 5. There is some risk, but he's still an RB2/FLEX play in Week 15.
Week 14 at Miami Dolphins
The Patriots have the highest implied team total for Week 14 with 29 points. Meanwhile, Dion Lewis is the RB16 in PPR over the past four weeks, and the Dolphins have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points in that span. Overall, Miami is ranked just 17th in aFPA to RBs. Dion Lewis's volume makes him no worse than an RB2 in all formats for Week 14.
Week 13 at Buffalo Bills
The traditional Patriots backfield concerns have somewhat melted away with Mike Gillislee turning into a healthy scratch in recent weeks and James White getting no more than 5 touches each of the last three weeks. Meanwhile, the Bills have been horrendous against running backs, ranking 31st in aFPA against the position. The Patriots are favorites this week with the second-highest implied total. That's good news for the backfield. Dion Lewis has three straight weeks with double-digit PPR points. Fire him up as an RB2 in Week 13.
Week 12 vs. Miami Dolphins
Patriots backfield touches over the past two games: Dion Lewis-28, Rex Burkhead-22, James White-10. Lewis has also received the most consistent usage with 14 touches in each of those two games, including usage near the end zone, having scored twice. The Dolphins are above-average in aFPA vs. RB rankings, but as a 17-point favorite with the highest implied total of 32 points, this is a good projected game script for Lewis. Consider him an RB2 this week.
