Fantasy Upside
When you lose DeAndre Hopkins and replace him with Brandin Cooks and Randall Cobb (who join a group of holdovers headlined by Will Fuller and Kenny Stills), it's probably going to take more than adding a pass-catching back (David Johnson, who comes to town after two less-than-stellar campaigns in Arizona) to keep Deshaun Watson inside the top 5 at this position. Even before Hopkins' departure, there was already reason for concern. As ESPN's Matthew Berry noted, Watson had seven games last season with zero or one passing touchdown. So is he too high in our rankings? Well, CBSSports.com recently pointed out that "even with an inferior roster and questionable head coaching around him," Watson ranked second at the position in points per game (21.3) and produced the most fantasy points per rushing attempt (0.99) among quarterbacks with at least 80 carries.
Fantasy Downside
Per NFL.com, Watson finished as a Top-5 fantasy quarterback in five different weeks last season as well. But he scored fewer than 17 fantasy points six times. Also worth noting, OC Tim Kelly will take over play calling from HC Bill O'Brien, who had done that job since early in the 2016 season.
2020 Bottom Line
Regardless of the coaching change (and Kelly's strong relationship with Watson is reportedly one reason for the change) and a weaker supporting cast, Watson's athleticism, running ability and past production will keep him firmly locked in as a fantasy QB1 this season and beyond.
Week 17 vs. Tennessee Titans
Facing a poor Tampa Bay pass defense last Saturday, Deshaun Watson finished with only 184 aerial yards and 37 yards on the ground. It was the fourth time in ’19 he threw for less than 200 yards and just the second in which he failed to register a TD. Two weeks ago at Tennessee Watson tossed for 243 yards and two touchdowns, so expect a better performance at home for Sunday’s rematch.
Week 16 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
In the big divisional win at Tennessee last week, Deshaun Watson passed for 243 yards and two touchdowns – both to Kenny Stills – and rushed for 32 yards. Watson’s day could’ve been even better had he not thrown two Red Zone picks, the fourth time this season he’s tossed multiple interceptions. Watson continues to be a scoring machine, accounting for 33 TDs, while racking up nearly 290 total yards per game. The Bucs pass defense is the third-worst in the NFL, so there’s no question you’re going to continue to ride with Watson at QB.
Week 15 at Tennessee Titans
After falling behind big in the first half to the Broncos last week Deshaun Watson ended up posting good fantasy numbers, throwing for 292 yards with a score and running for 44 yards and two TDs. While he hasn’t tossed for 300 yards in six straight contests, Watson has accounted for multiple touchdowns in five of those six outings, including three in a row. Even though he’ll be on the road, Watson will be facing the seventh-worst pass defense, so he should absolutely remain in your starting lineup.
Week 14 vs. Denver Broncos
Facing a good New England defense last Sunday night, Deshaun Watson torched the Pats for three scores through the air and a six-yard TD reception from DeAndre Hopkins on an option play. While he’s failed to throw for 300 yards during the past five outings, he’s accounted for multiple TDs in four of those contests. It looks like another challenge on paper for Watson and the Houston offense as the Broncos have the fifth-best defense against the pass. Despite the opponent, he remains a top QB.
Week 13 vs. New England Patriots
In the win over the Colts last Thursday, Deshaun Watson rebounded from an ugly performance with a solid outing. He threw for nearly 300 yards and two TDs, marking the seventh time this season he’s accounted for multiple scores. With the return of Will Fuller, Watson was able to stretch the defense with the deep ball. However, it could be another struggle versus the Patriots and their No. 2 pass defense on Sunday.
Week 12 vs. Indianapolis Colts
It’s a good thing Deshaun Watson and the Texans have a short week so they can forget about the disaster in Baltimore last Sunday. In what was arguably his worst game as a pro, Watson threw for just 169 yards, rushed for 12 and was sacked six times. It was the first time this season he did not account for a TD. In the Week 7 loss at Indy Watson threw for 308 yards with one score and two picks. Expect him to rebound at home on Thursday night, even against the No. 11 Colts pass defense.
Week 11 at Baltimore Ravens
In the win over Jacksonville in London two weeks ago, Deshaun Watson threw for 201 yards and two touchdowns and ran for 37 yards. In the five games prior to the bye week, he totaled 14 TDs, accounting for at least two scores in all but one of those contests. Watson's and the Houston offense’s biggest test so far of ’19 will be on Sunday at Baltimore against an overall stingy defense. Be sure he’s inserted back into your starting lineup, but you may want to temper expectations a tad.
Week 9 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Last Sunday was just another ho-hum game for Deshaun Watson, tossing for 279 yards and three scores and running for an additional 46 yards. Oh yeah, his final, game-winning TD pass came after getting spun around and then kicked in the eye. Through the first half of the season Watson has accounted for nearly 2,500 yards and 21 touchdowns, with only five interceptions. Even though the Texans must travel to London and face the No. 13 Jacksonville pass defense, there’s no question he remains a QB1 start.
Week 8 vs. Oakland Raiders
The Texans comeback fell short last Sunday in Indy as Deshaun Watson’s final pass was batted in the air by WR Keke Coutee and intercepted. In the loss, Watson threw for 308 yards and a score and ran for 32 yards. In the past three weeks, he’s completed 74% of his passes, averaging 378 total yards and three TDs. The Raiders own the second-worst pass defense so Watson should be in line for another strong performance at home.
