Week 1 at Arizona Cardinals
Adrian Peterson has won the early-down job in Washington's backfield, which makes Chris Thompson likely only a valuable option in PPR leagues to start the season. Arizona was also tough against the run last year, ranking fourth in aFPA to RBs. This game has the sixth-lowest over/under in Vegas for Week 1. Thompson also hinted at not being fully comfortable with his recovery (broken leg) from last season. Consider Thompson a risky FLEX play in PPR, who will have to be hyper-efficient again to return fantasy value in Week 1.
Fantasy Upside
Derrius Guice landing on IR means this backfield once again should belong mostly to Chris Thompson. He will never be used like a bell cow back at his frame, but targets are far more valuable than carries in fantasy football. Through the first 10 weeks of last season, Thompson was a top-12 RB in all formats.
Fantasy Downside
Thompson is coming off a broken leg, and there is some speculation he will not be fully healthy until midseason. This should be monitored moving forward. A lack of carries each week could also impact his weekly consistency negatively at times.
2018 Bottom Line
With Guice no longer in the picture, Thompson is a clear RB to target in drafts this season. His ADP in the eighth round is a good value.
Week 11 at New Orleans Saints
This has the making of a shootout for Washington's offense, as Vegas has placed the second-highest total on this game for Week 11 at 51 points. Despite being underdogs, Washington is still in the top half of implied team totals this week. In the backfield, Rob Kelley is on IR, leaving room for Chris Thompson to get some more touches but likely not a large number of carries, as rookie Samaje Perine will assume early-down work. However, odds are Washington will be playing from behind in this game. Consider Thompson a high-end RB2 in PPR formats but still viable in standard leagues as well with Rob Kelley out of the picture.
Week 10 vs. Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings are third in our aFPA vs. RB rankings and have allowed the second-fewest points overall to the position. However, Chris Thompson is averaging more than 3 receptions per game this season and is leading Washington RBs in efficiency. That keeps Thompson as a viable high-end RB2 in Week 10.
Week 9 at Seattle Seahawks
Washington may have to funnel extra targets Thompson's way against a Seattle defense that is tough against the run and even tougher against WRs (second in our aFPA vs. WR rankings). Thompson has at least 15 PPR points in three consecutive games, locking him into high-end RB2 status with low-end RB1 ceiling potential in a game script that will likely favor him over plodder Rob Kelley.
Week 8 vs. Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys rank 23rd in our aFPA vs. RB rankings. More importantly, Thompson is getting double-digit touches since his bye week (4-5 receptions per game). His usage, especially in the red zone (Danny Woodhead-like) makes him a solid RB2 this week with a ceiling even higher than that, in a game with the highest over/under in Vegas for Week 8.
Week 7 at Philadelphia Eagles
Jay Gruden keeps saying he wants to limit Chris Thompson's touches, but the dynamic satellite back had 20 touches last week with Rob Kelley sidelined and rookie Samaje Perine under-performing. Perine did vulture a receiving goal-line touchdown from Thompson last week, but Thompson is the back to own in Washington. Philadelphia is a tough matchup, but Thompson's usage keeps him on the RB2 radar for Week 7.
Week 6 vs. San Francisco 49ers
Coming off the bye, Rob Kelley is likely out, meaning Chris Thompson and Samaje Perine will split the backfield work. When this happened in Week 3, Thompson exploded on just 14 touches. Expect another 10-15 touches this week, as Washington will still rely on Samaje Perine for traditional early-down work, but Thompson is a solid RB2 option in Week 6 against a 49ers defense ranked 29th in our aFPA vs. PPR RB rankings.
Week 4 at Kansas City Chiefs
The efficiency machine is our top projected Washington fantasy RB for Week 4. Thompson is averaging more than eight yards per game and has scored all three weeks. This uber-efficiency is why he's been fantasy relevant despite a 7-7-14 touch count in the first three weeks. Notice that 14 though. With Rob Kelley out, Thompson saw more touches. That could continue again even with Kelley possibly back, as Samaje Perine fumbled again last week, which is what got him in Jay Gruden's doghouse in the preseason. Thompson will again be a great FLEX option in Week 4.
Week 3 vs. Oakland Raiders
Oakland-Washington is projected to be the highest scoring game of Week 3 on Sunday night, with a total of 54.5 points. Washington is the home underdog, which could lead to negative game script and more passing for Cousins, coupled with an implied team total of 25.75 points. Thompson has been electric this season, with three touchdowns in two weeks, and now, Rob Kelley is banged up in the Washington backfield. Thompson's extreme efficiency is hard to rely on, averaging more than 20 PPR points on 6.5 touches per game, but he has a sizable role in this offense (40%+ snaps in both weeks). Consider Thompson a good FLEX option in what should be a high-scoring game, and an even better option in PPR leagues in Week 3.
