Week 6 at New York Giants (Thursday)
Going on the road for Thursday Night Football is always a tough ask. Facing the Giants, who rank first in aFPA to QBs doesn't make it any easier. The game having the fifth lowest over/under in Vegas this week also doesn't inspire confidence. QB is deeper than ever though, and Wentz's projection in our rankings would make him a solid QB1 in past years. Not this year though. In Wentz's last three games against the Giants, he's scored less than 15 points in each. There's a lot not to like about Wentz this week.
Week 5 vs. Minnesota Vikings
Wentz struggled against Minnesota two seasons ago, but this year's defense is far more relevant. And the Vikings are struggling, evidenced by a poor ranking of 29th in aFPA to QBs. Wentz was statistically improved in his second start of the season, but oddly, protection has been an issue. Wentz has been sacked nine times in the past two weeks. The Eagles have a middling 24.75 implied team total as well. Went is not yet the every week MVP-level fantasy starter he was a year ago. But he's a QB2 with QB1 upside.
Week 4 at Tennessee Titans
A couple of turnovers sunk any fantasy value Carson Wentz could have had in his season debut last week. He'll look to correct that on the road against a Titans defense ranked sixth in aFPA to QBs after shutting down Blake Bortles last week. This game has the third-lowest total on the week, implying a low-scoring game. Better matchups are ahead, but for now, Wentz can't be trusted in start-one quarterback leagues the way he was during his MVP-level campaign last year.
Week 3 vs. Indianapolis Colts
Carson Wentz makes his return from major knee surgery after posting MVP-level numbers last season. A conservative, balanced approach should be expected in his return to help him get comfortable. Philadelphia has an attractive 27-point implied team total this week, but the Colts have surprised defensively, ranking 10th in fantasy points allowed to the position through two weeks after facing Andy Dalton and Alex Smith. Consider Wentz a high-end QB2 in his return with obvious upside.
Fantasy Upside
Carson Wentz was QB2 in total points and QB3 in points per game before tearing his ACL in Week 14 last season. His upside is immense—an elite fantasy quarterback capable of putting up MVP numbers in one of the best offenses in the league.
Fantasy Downside
Wentz is still recovering from a torn ACL he suffered late last season. It's fair to question whether Wentz will be healthy Week 1, as he is still slowly being incorporated into 11-on-11 drills in practice and probably won't play in the preseason.
2018 Bottom Line
Wentz has an ADP in the sixth round. If he's fully cleared for Week 1, an argument can be made for that price, but it's priced closer to his ceiling than his floor. Wentz will need to maintain elite fantasy numbers to make the price worth it.
Week 14 at Los Angeles Rams
The Eagles-Rams game has the third-highest over/under in Vegas this week at 48 points. Even in a hostile environment against a tough defense, Carson Wentz still posted 16.9 fantasy points last week. Not bad for playing in Seattle. The matchup is even tougher on paper this week, as the Rams are third in our aFPA vs. QB rankings. Wentz's body of work this season still locks him into a top-five QB ranking in Week 14.
Week 13 at Seattle Seahawks
Carson Wentz is averaging more than 20 fantasy points per game, and that includes 24 and 15 points against the Bears and Chargers this season, two top-10 defenses in aFPA versus QBs. He'll face another in the top 10 this week at Seattle, with the Seahawks allowing about 15 points to QBs over the past three weeks. Vegas has good news for Wentz owners this week though, as the Eagles have the fourth-highest implied team total of the week. It is still safe to start Wentz, even in this hostile environment.
Week 12 vs. Chicago Bears
Carson Wentz has graduated to every week QB1 status this year, and Week 12 is no different. Wentz is averaging 22.6 fantasy points over his last six games, and even though the Bears are sixth in our aFPA vs. QB rankings, Wentz has been too good to bench, unless you also have an elite option after drafting Wentz late this year.
Week 11 at Dallas Cowboys
Carson Wentz heads to Dallas for Sunday Night Football, facing a team he did not have a turnover against in two games last season. The Cowboys are just 18th in our aFPA vs. QB rankings, and Vegas has the Eagles with an implied team total of 26.25, fourth-highest for Week 11. Wentz is a surefire QB1 this week with 10 touchdowns in his last three games.
Week 9 vs. Denver Broncos
Carson Wentz is QB4 in fantasy points per game, but his matchup this week will be a challenge against a Broncos defense ranked top-10 in aFPA vs. QBs. Nevertheless, the sample is large enough at this point with Wentz to ride him out and play him as a QB1 this week, as he's scored at least 15 fantasy points in every game but one this season.
