Week 4 vs. Tennessee Titans
Austin Hooper found the holes created by the Colts zone coverage and exploded in Week 3. He finished as the TE2 behind Greg Olsen. Hooper had six receptions on seven targets for 66 yards, two touchdowns, 21% of the team targets, and 16% of the team air yards. He is the Half PPR TE6 through the first three weeks.
According to our signature schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed metric, the Colts secondary is fifth-best against wide receivers but third-worst against tight ends. 4for4 rankings expert John Paulsen has Hooper ranked as the Half PPR TE7. Hooper is a safe start across all leagues.
Week 3 at Indianapolis Colts
Through two Weeks, Austin Hooper has yet to find the endzone but his usage has been encouraging. He leads the Falcons with 13 receptions. However, Ridley and Julio are close behind with 12 and 11, respectively. In Week 2 against the Eagles, he finished with four receptions on six targets for 34 yards, 14% of the team targets, and 7% of the team air yards.
The good news is that the Colts are ranked second-worst against tight ends according to our signature schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed metric. 4for4 rankings expert John Paulsen has Hooper ranked as the Half PPR TE11. Hooper continues to be a safe play at tight end for fantasy owners who are looking for stability. He does not have the weekly upside to finish as a top-three tight end but is a safe start against the Colts.
Week 2 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Hooper led the team in Week 1 receiving yards. He finished with nine receptions on nine targets for 77 yards, 20% of the team targets, 12% of the team air yards, and finished as the Half PPR TE6 with 12.2 fantasy points. Hooper’s usage and efficiency are encouraging to fantasy owners who are looking for consistency at the tight end position.
The good news is that the Falcons could be in a shootout against the Eagles this week because the over/under is currently at 52.5 points. The bad news is that the Eagles are ranked third best against tight ends according to our signature schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed metric. 4for4 rankings expert John Paulsen has Hooper ranked as the Half PPR TE14.
Week 1 at Minnesota Vikings
Austin Hooper finished his third season with a career-high 71 receptions, 660 yards, and four touchdowns. He played in all 16 games and finished as the TE6. Rich Hribar found that out of all current tight ends with 10 career touchdowns or more, Hooper, by percentage, is the most dependent on touchdowns scored inside the 10-yard line at 80%.
Hooper can return value in Week 1 if he is able to find the end zone but he will have a tough matchup against the Vikings who are the 10th-best defense against tight ends per our signature schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed metric. 4for4’s rankings expert John Paulsen has Hooper as the PPR TE12 in Week 1 with a median projection of 8.4 fantasy points.
Fantasy Upside
Generally, it takes tight ends three years to develop in the NFL. This was the case for Hooper who finished his third season with a career-high 71 receptions, 660 yards, and four touchdowns. He played in all 16 games and finished as the TE6. Former Titans head coach, Mike Mularkey, is the new tight ends coach for the Falcons and should help Hooper develop his skillset.
Fantasy Downside
Rich Hribar found that out of all current tight ends with 10 career touchdowns or more, Hooper, by percentage, is the most dependent on touchdowns scored inside the 10-yard line at 80%. Hooper is above Jack Doyle (71%), Jordan Reed (70%), and Hunter Henry (67%). Hooper flashed his potential by finishing the season as the TE6 but he was not consistent on a weekly basis. He only finished as a top-six tight end in five games. Additionally, he was a TE2 in seven games and a TE3 or worse in three games. Last year, his worst performance happened in the fantasy playoffs when he had one target and zero receptions against the Cardinals in Week 15.
2019 Bottom Line
Hooper may not have the ceiling to finish as a top-three tight end but he has the potential to return value for drafters who are comfortable waiting on selecting a tight end. He is being drafted outside of the top 10 tight ends but proved, as the TE6 last season, he has the ability to surpass his average draft position.
Week 17 at Tampa Bay Bucs
Austin Hooper caught two-of-two targets for 36 yards in the Falcons’ Week 16 win over the Panthers. Battling knee and ankle injuries the past two weeks, Hooper looked healthy but Matt Ryan’s three touchdowns went to Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley and Mohamed Sanu. Hooper is our TE10 for Week 17 but he’ll be a touchdown-dependent play when the Falcons visit the Bucs.
Week 16 at Carolina Panthers
Austin Hooper was held without a catch in Week 15 despite the Falcons scoring 40 points against the Cardinals. Entering Sunday nursing knee and ankle injuries, Hooper only saw one target. The Falcons travel to Charlotte in Week 16 to take on a Panthers team that ranks 28th against fantasy tight ends this season. Despite producing a goose egg last week, Hooper will be a low-end TE1 in Week 16. He’s our TE9, mostly based on the matchup but make sure to monitor his playing status as he’s been limited in practice this week.
Week 15 vs. Arizona Cardinals
Austin Hooper caught four-of-six targets for 37 yards in the Falcons’ Week 14 loss to the Packers. It was the most Austin Hooper-like game, as he’s currently averaging five catches for 43 yards on the season. He ranks as our TE16 for Week 15 but he also might not play. He missed practice on both Wednesday and Thursday because of knee and ankle injuries. If Hooper is out, Eric Saubert will start at tight end but he has zero fantasy value.
Week 14 at Green Bay Packers
Austin Hooper caught all five of his targets for 44 yards and a touchdown in the Falcons’ Week 13 loss to the Ravens. Atlanta scored a garbage touchdown late in the fourth quarter after Baltimore had the game in hand and Hooper owners benefited from the gift. The touchdown was Hooper’s fourth of the season and he’ll remain in the TE1 mix Sunday when the Falcons visit the Packers. The tight end has become a bigger part of Atlanta’s passing game in recent weeks because Ryan is being forced to get the ball out of his hand quickly due to shoddy pass protection. With Hooper running mostly short routes, he’s seeing consistent targets. Ranked as our TE6 for Week 14, Hooper is a viable TE1 for Sunday.
Week 13 vs. Baltimore Ravens
Austin Hooper caught all five of his targets for 31 yards in the Falcons’ Week 12 loss to the Saints. Like most fantasy tight ends this year, Hooper is a boom-or-bust option for owners. He ranks as our TE13 for Week 13 so there is some appeal as a streaming option, but Atlanta’s passing game has suffered the past three games because of poor offensive line play. Use Hooper at your own risk.
