Week 4 at Vikings
Hooper has finished as TE29, TE17, and TE13 this season. The problem is that he's only put up a 14.29% target share, which is tough to rely on with this run-heavy offense. The good news is that Hooper should be able to see a bit of a bump in targets with Landry sidelined. The bad news is that the other tight ends like David Njoku (10.39% target share) and Harrison Bryant (41.29% of snaps) still play a role.
Hooper goes up against a Vikings defense that ranks 30th in aFPA, so perhaps he can make an impact in this spot. He'll definitely have more of a chance to find the endzone because it's a projected shootout. Hooper has racked up three red-zone targets, establishing himself as the top option for Mayfield there, so this is a great spot for him. Consider Hooper a viable streamer against the Vikings.
Week 3 vs. Bears
Hooper is currently tied for the team lead with a 16.67% target share, but the problem is that he's sharing that lead with fellow tight end David Njoku. There is also second-year tight end Harrison Bryant, who has played over 41 percent of the snaps. Bryant has put up a 12.5% target share, making this a frustrating situation for fantasy players. It's tough to trust any of these tight ends unless there is an injury to one of the players because they're eating into each other's fantasy values right now.
Hooper takes on the Bears this week, but with Beckham back in the lineup, it's hard to consider the veteran tight end as a potential streamer in this spot. We can likely project Beckham to lead the team in targets in his first game back. Hooper would need the Browns to fall behind, resulting in an uptick in passing volume, for him to provide solid value in this one. We can consider him an underwhelming TE2 in this game.
Week 2 vs. Texans
Hooper had a disappointing game against the Chiefs, catching all three of his targets for only 27 yards. While he led tight ends with a 64.41% snap rate, he had a lower target share (11.11%) than fellow tight end David Njoku (18.52% ). Njoku finished second on the team with 102 air yards, so it's clear that the young tight end is knocking on the door for some fantasy relevance. There's a chance that Njoku's emergence can really put a dent in Hooper's fantasy value.
While the Texans defense struggled in virtually every facet of the game last year, they did do a good job defending tight ends, ranking 9th in aFPA last season. However, they did allow Jaguars' tight end David O'Shaughnessy to catch 6-of-8 targets for 48 yards. Having said that, it's hard to trust Hooper in this spot while he's contending for targets with Njoku. There are a lot of mouths to feed in this offense, even with OBJ sidelined and especially in this run-heavy game script.
Week 1 at Kansas City Chiefs
Austin Hooper is only one year removed from catching 75-of-97 targets for 787 yards and six touchdowns, a strong season that resulted in the Browns making him one of the highest-paid tight ends in football. While this will still be a run-heavy offense, Hooper has a chance to make an impact as a sleeper tight end in his second year with the Browns. Hooper is on the streaming radar in this potential shootout against a Chiefs defense that ranked 28th in aFPA to tight ends last season.
The risk here is that the Browns have quite possibly the best trio of tight ends with Hooper, David Njoku and Harrison Bryant. There are so many mouths to feed in this offense, which is made even worse with the run-heavy philosophy. This really caps Hooper’s ceiling, especially in games where the Browns are successfully running the football. Having said that, Hooper looks like a Top-15 tight end in this potential shootout.
Fantasy Upside
Austin Hooper caught 46-of-70 targets for 435 yards (9.5 Y/R) and four touchdowns in 13 games in his first season with the Browns, finishing as TE20 in half-PPR points per game. Despite his middling numbers, Hooper’s volume stats point towards a better season in 2021. Hooper posted a 19.02% target share last year, which ranked seventh among tight ends, behind Darren Waller, Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, George Kittle, Evan Engram, and Logan Thomas. This is a player who is only one year removed from a season where he put up 75 receptions for 787 yards and six touchdowns in 13 games with the Falcons, finishing as TE3 and earning himself a lucrative contract with the Browns. While David Njoku and Harrison Bryant are good tight ends, Hooper is still the man in Cleveland. He has Top-10 upside at tight end.
Fantasy Downside
Similar to the other pass-catchers, Hooper’s fantasy downside lies within the offensive philosophy of the Browns. If they’re too run-heavy, there will be less volume for Hooper, which is bad news because he needs a high volume in order to sustain fantasy value, since he isn’t a big-play tight end. We also need to consider the tight end depth on this team. David Njoku and Harrison Bryant are both capable of commanding some targets, which would be bad news for Hooper. Having said that, Hooper is the fifth-highest paid tight end in the NFL, so there’s a good chance that he’ll retain his role.
2021 Bottom Line
Hooper is simply way too underpriced at this stage of the offseason. He’s currently being drafted as TE24 (186.6 ADP), behind the likes of Blake Jarwin and Anthony Firkser. Hooper has a much better track record, so you need to capitalize on the buying opportunity presented by the presence of players like Njoku and Bryant. Hooper looks like the best value on this Browns offense. He’s one of the few tight ends in this range who have a Top-10 season within their range of outcomes.
Week 17 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Austin Hooper saw a whopping 15 targets in Week 16, in large part due to the fact that the Browns were missing essentially their entire wide receiver room due to COVID issues. Hooper managed to catch seven of those targets for 71 scoreless yards. Hooper is not going to see 15 targets again this week with those receivers returning to the lineup, but he continues to maintain a modest role in the Cleveland passing game that keeps him on the fantasy radar due to his decent floor and the fact that he gets looks near the goal line. Even so, Hooper will be tough to trust this week against a Steelers defense that is among the top five most difficult for opposing tight ends in the league.
Week 16 at New York Jets
Austin Hooper sees low volume in the Cleveland offense, but manages to score enough touchdowns to stay on the fantasy radar as a TE2 option in deep leagues. Hooper's 5-41-1 line from last week is an example of his ceiling, so he will never post the huge blowup game that carries your team to victory. That being said, he can be useful in the right matchups, and Week 16 is exactly that with Hooper taking on a Jets defense that struggles to cover tight ends as much as any team in the league. Hooper is well worth considering as a streamer or TE2 option this week.
Week 14 vs. Baltimore Ravens
Austin Hooper is good for the occasional touchdown, but he is seeing too sporadic of usage to be counted on as a TE1. Hooper has a total of 11 targets over his last four games, showing that his floor is very low any week he doesn't find the endzone. The Browns get the Ravens' tough defense in Week 14, although that defense has been about league average when isolated to their performance against tight ends. The matchup isn't a reason to bench Hooper, but when combined with his low usage, it makes him nothing more than an unexciting TE2 in Week 14.
Week 13 at Tennessee Titans
Austin Hooper's fantasy profile is fairly clear at this point. He is always at risk of low usage in the Cleveland offense, but he does get some red-zone looks which grant him touchdown-dependent TE2 status most weeks. The Titans have struggled to contain tight ends most of the year, and the lack of pass rush in Tennessee means Baker Mayfield should have a decent game without excessive pressure in the pocket. Hooper is on the fantasy radar as a streaming option or high-end TE2 in Week 13.
Week 12 at Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars present one of the league's best matchups for opposing tight ends, but Austin Hooper is difficult to trust as a TE1 with Cleveland throwing the ball so rarely. Baker Mayfield hasn't exceeded 12 completions in three weeks, meaning ancillary pass catchers like Hooper are completely touchdown dependent for fantasy purposes. While Hooper should have no issue finding some openings in the Jacksonville defense, whether those openings translate to the stat sheet is a dice roll and make Hooper nothing more than a TE2 in Week 12.
