Week 6 at Houston
Andrew Luck faces a Texans defense on the road that is third in adjusted fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. That bumps him out of the top-5 QBs this week. However, in his previous two starts against the Texans (in 2014), he has thrown for five touchdowns but turned the ball over three times. He averaged 278.5 yards passing in those games and 18 rushing yards. It's hard to bench Luck, but it's not an idea matchup.
Week 5 vs. Chicago
Luck's protection is becoming a concern. He's on pace to get sacked 60 times, and he needed garbage time to get north of 18 fantasy points last week, after posting less than three in the first half against a very beatable Jaguars team. He is still a top-5 option this week against Chicago, but the floor is much lower than most expected with an offensive line that continues to struggle.
Week 4 vs. Jacksonville
In four games against the Jaguars, Andrew Luck has twelve total touchdowns and three interceptions in his career. Cheerio! Lock and load Luck as a top-five option in fantasy Week 4. Luck is also averaging more than 350 yards per game against opponents not named the Denver Broncos this season and faces a Jags defense that is 24th in adjusted quarterback points allowed.
Luck struggled at Denver last week, but who doesn't against that defense? He now faces a San Diego defense at home which has given up more than 300 yards and two touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks in back-to-back weeks. Luck is locked in as a top-5 option this week.
Week 2 at Denver
Andrew Luck's 35 Week 1 points led all quarterbacks after he posted 385 yards, 4 TD, 0 INT, and 21 yards added on the ground against the Lions. Things are much different now at Denver, the toughest match-up he'll see all year. He's a borderline QB1 this week. You're starting him, but temper expectations. There is still upside here though, as Luck has averaged 279 pass yards, 2.25 TD, 1 INT, 23 rush yards, and 0.5 rush TD in his last four games against Denver, including the postseason.
Week 1 vs. Detroit
Luck opens the season with a plus matchup against a Lions defense that ranked 20th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks last season. He should return to being a high-volume passer with a Colts offensive line that should struggle run blocking for Frank Gore against a stout Lions defensive line. Over the course of his career, Luck has finished the most weeks as a top-12 quarterback. He's a top-5 option to start the year.
Fantasy Upside
Before an injury-riddled 2015, we saw what Luck’s upside can be in 2014 with decent offensive line play in front of him: a top tier fantasy QB. That season he finished as the QB2 with 356 points, just two points behind Rodgers...and more points than any other QB not named Cam Newton in 2015. The Colts invested half of their draft into offensive linemen, including a first round pick on center Ryan Kelly and a 3rd round pick on G/T Le’Raven Clark, after a season where advanced statistics showed Luck only had two unavoidable sacks. No fantasy quarterback will have his offensive line under a microscope leading to draft day more than Luck, and if it can at least get to 2014 levels (which was still average, at best), Luck can return to top tier fantasy QB status, with even more weapons than he had that season.
Fantasy Downside
Even in the seven games Luck played last year, he did not play like an elite fantasy quarterback. His 18.7 FP/G put him just below Aaron Rodgers and just above Kirk Cousins for what would have been a QB8 finish over a 16-game pace. Yes, his offensive line was utterly dismal, but Luck compounded that into turnovers. 15 touchdowns to 13 turnovers in seven games was terrible, including multiple turnovers in five of seven games. If the offensive line doesn’t improve, Luck could be scrambling for his life again, more susceptible to turnovers and injury again.
Bottom Line
Luck is our #4 QB heading into 2016 but one of three QBs projected to crack 300 points, with Cam Newton, Russell Wilson, and Aaron Rodgers. His turnovers are still a concern (less than two-to-one TD-INT ratio still for his career), but Luck’s lackluster 2015 have depressed his average draft position to a point where he may be worth the risk to you, going around the 4th-5th round turn, when RBs and WRs start to all blend together, but it’s hard to justify drafting him any earlier than that with how deep the QB position has become. The projected difference between Luck and QBs available in the 9th round or later comes out to about 2 points per week or less.
Week 9 vs. Denver
Andrew Luck's strange season continued with another bad performance last week. He completed less than half of his passes and threw three interceptions and two touchdowns. Granted, it was a rainy, sloppy game, but Luck hasn't been anywhere near himself. His struggles will continue this week in a brutal matchup against Denver. Not only will he face the league's top pass defense, but he'll do it possibly without his best receiver (T.Y. Hilton) and his offensive coordinator was fired this week. Luck still has a high ceiling, but he's not an elite option this week. He's on the lower spectrum of QB1 plays.
Week 8 at Carolina
Andrew Luck got off to a rocky start last week (two early interceptions), but bounced back and had a huge 333-yard, three-touchdown game. He now has three touchdowns and 300 yards in consecutive games.
Luck is finally putting up the numbers fantasy owners had hoped for, but he'll likely cool off in Week 8 against Carolina. The Panthers have been one of the toughest teams against the pass, allowing just five touchdowns and forcing nine interceptions. Luck's ceiling still gives him value, but he's on the lower end of the QB1 spectrum this week, rather than near the top.
Andrew Luck - Week 7 vs. New Orleans
Andrew Luck is all healed up and ready to go. The Colts quarterback threw for over 300 yards and three touchdowns in Week 6 after taking two games off due to an injury. It was his best performance of the season and it finally looks like he's ready to prove why he was such a high draft pick in fantasy this year.
Using advanced metrics we determine Luck is averaging 312 yards and three touchdowns against teams that have the word "New" in their city name this season. That means he should do well against New Orleans in Week 7. Or he'll do well because the Saints have allowed an average of 283 passing yards per game.
Either way, Luck figures to be a top-tier play this week. Start him with confidence.
