Week 10 at Denver
Streamers who started Alex Smith when Kansas City played Detroit in Week 8 before their bye were thrilled with the veteran signal caller, as Smith did a Cam Newton impersonation by rushing for 78 yards and a touchdown. He also threw for two scores and 145 yards.
It was a nice moment for Alex, but the fun is highly likely to end in Denver against an angry bunch of Broncos frustrated by their first loss of the season. Denver owns the NFL’s top pass defense and Smith struggled when he played them in Week 2, tossing two interceptions while failing to throw a touchdown pass. He was also held to under 200 yards. Smith should be avoided across the board.
Week 8 vs. Detroit
With Kansas City running the ball well in Week 6, Alex Smith delivered his usual steady but unspectacular numbers, throwing for 251 yards and a touchdown as Kansas City upset the Steelers. In four of seven starts this season, Smith has thrown for just one touchdown. And in two other starts, he pitched a shutout in the touchdown department.
If there was ever a week Smith could bring more to the table, this is it, as Detroit has yielded 12 touchdown passes. The Lions are also conceding close to 270 yards per game. Most likely, Smith will conjure up his usual vanilla numbers, making him a safe bet in 2-QB leagues but not much of a streaming option elsewhere.
Week 7 vs Pittsburgh
Alex Smith threw for 282 yards and a touchdown in Week 6 as Kansas City lost 16-10 to Minnesota. The numbers were adequate considering Jeremy Maclin was knocked out of action due to a concussion, but Smith has thrown just six touchdowns in six games.
While Maclin’s return may not be a lock, it appears as though he will play against a Pittsburgh defense that is much better at stopping the run than the pass, giving Smith a greater chance at finding success. Opposing passers have thrown 10 touchdowns against the Steelers. And Pittsburgh gives up an average of 283.2 yards. Smith never has much in the way of upside and probably will not go crazy in this one despite the nice matchup, but will give fantasy owners in 2-QB leagues decent production.
Week 6 at Minnesota
Heading into Week 5’s prime matchup with Chicago, Alex Smith had the upside to be a stream dream for those seeking help at quarterback. However, the dream turned into a nightmare for anyone banking on Smith, as Alex threw for just 181 yards and a touchdown in a devastating loss for the Chiefs.
While Minnesota’s defense has been more vulnerable against the run than the pass, overall they have shown plenty of growth under defensive-minded head coach Mike Zimmer. In four games, the Vikings have allowed just five touchdown passes. Opponents are averaging 232.3 yards through the air against the Vikings. Without Jamaal Charles, it is possible Smith could be turned loose more. Ultimately, though, Alex’s trust factor and upside are very low at the moment, especially against a defense on the rise. You can start him in 2QB leagues, but that’s it.
Week 5 vs. Detroit
When most think of Alex Smith, the word “amazing” does not come to mind. However, Smith did something truly amazing in a Week 4 loss to Cincinnati. Smith threw for 386 yards but failed to throw a touchdown pass! It may be a long time before such a bizarre set of circumstances happens again.
The yardage will almost assuredly drop this week, but Chicago has given up 10 touchdown passes. The mixture of Chicago’s ineffectiveness and Smith making the most of his improved supporting cast puts Alex on the streaming radar as a possible low-end QB1. He could also provide nice value in daily formats.
Week 4 at Cincinnati
Alex Smith showed on Monday night why fantasy and real football are totally separate entities. Smith’s uneven play and a foolish interception helped Green Bay jump out to a huge lead. And then, with Smith trying to rally the Chiefs, he bolstered his fantasy numbers, throwing for 290 yards and a touchdown as Kansas City suffered a 31-21 loss to the powerful Packers.
Smith could find some success against Cincinnati, as the Bengals were roasted by Baltimore’s Joe Flacco and Steve Smith last Sunday. They have also given up six touchdown passes and over 250 yards a game. Plus, the 3-0 Bengals are favored, and the Chiefs could be playing from behind. However, Smith has not been productive enough to move out of the ranks of fantasy backups. He is only a legitimate starter in 2-QB leagues.
Week 5 at Green Bay
After throwing for three touchdowns in Week 1, Smith was brought back to Earth in Week 2 by Denver’s devastatingly effective defense. He was picked off twice and failed to throw a touchdown pass. He was also limited to 191 yards.
Although Green Bay’s defense will be an easier draw, the Packers play well at home and are surrendering a respectable 209 passing yards per game. Smith is only on the radar this week in 2-QB leagues as a low-end starter.
Week 2 vs Denver
Expected to struggle against Houston’s rugged defense during week one, Alex Smith instead threw for 243 yards and three touchdowns. It was the first time Smith threw for more than two touchdowns in a game since week four of last year. The emergence of Travis Kelce and arrival of Jeremy Maclin has breathed new life into Smith’s fantasy prospects.
However, do not make a special effort to work Smith into your lineup this week unless you are in a mandatory 2QB league. The Broncos allowed the fewest passing yards in the NFL in week one. Part of that was because of Baltimore’s ineptitude on offense, but they should pose some problems for Smith, especially on a short week. This is not a game where he would be a great streamer or offer much upside in daily leagues.
In recent seasons, Alex Smith has largely been an afterthought to fantasy owners. While his conservative nature is not ideal for fantasy success, the biggest reason why Smith was disregarded was a lousy supporting cast. With Travis Kelce poised for stardom and Jeremy Maclin giving Smith a legitimate home run threat, Smith is a much more appealing QB2 overall who could thrive in the right matchups.
Unfortunately, this is not the best opportunity for Smith to enjoy success. J.J. Watt and company will pose problems for Kansas City’s shaky offensive line, leaving Alex with little in the way of upside. He will be a safe low-end starter in two-quarterback leagues, but should not be used as a streamer or in daily leagues.
As he heads into his third season in Kansas City, Alex Smith remains one of those “better in real life than fantasy” guys. Is Smith’s lack of statistical production the result of Smith being the most tentative quarterback in the NFL or because he was playing overly conservative because he had so little to work with? As is often the case both in life and football, the truth may be somewhere in the middle. Smith aims to play mistake-free football, and that is admirable, especially since he led Kansas City to the playoffs in 2013 and kept them respectable again last year. But until Smith starts showing some semblance of aggression, the Chiefs may not reach their potential and fantasy owners will keep generally holding him in low regard. Could some reinforcements bring Smith out of his shell?
2015 Upside
One of the most amazing statistics from the 2014 season was that none of the Kansas City wide receivers caught a touchdown pass. While Smith gets some blame for that, it is not his fault his supporting cast was so weak. Fortunately, the Chiefs have cleaned house out wide. Dwayne Bowe and Donnie Avery are gone. Former Philadelphia Eagle Jeremy Maclin gives Smith a genuine threat. Kansas City selected Georgia’s Chris Conley in the third round of the draft, and Conley has a good chance of starting on opening day. Young Albert Wilson improved as the season went on and savvy veteran Jason Avant is also on hand. After last year, things can only get better, especially with talented tight end Travis Kelce on the rise.
2015 Downside
While Smith’s numbers ought to improve, he has only thrown more than 20 touchdown passes once in his entire career, and Alex has been in the league since 2005. The improved players around him should help him top the 20 mark again, but to think Smith is suddenly going to turn into a statistical stud is unrealistic. He does not have a gunslinger mentality and Jamaal Charles still anchors Kansas City’s attack. The Chiefs have a very rough slate to begin the season, with Houston, Cincinnati, and Green Bay on the road plus Denver at home. If you elect to draft and stash suspended Tom Brady, Smith is far from ideal as a short-term fix with that schedule. Other tough tilts for the Chiefs include Buffalo, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, a rematch with Denver, and a trip to Britain to play Detroit.
Bottom Line
With fewer scrubs around him, Smith is a bit more appealing as a QB2 in 2015. Nevertheless, he remains largely the same player he has been since coming to Kansas City, a firm fantasy backup outside of two-quarterback leagues who is capable of some nice moments but not enough of them.
