Week 3 at Los Angeles Chargers
As expected, Alex Smith came down last week after his Week 1 performance. He still played well, completing 21-of-28 passes, but from a fantasy perspective, his 251 yards with one score doesn't do a whole lot. He also added 21 yards on 4 carries.
He could have a better performance this week against a Chargers team that has allowed the fifth-most points to opposing quarterbacks this season. Smith has plenty of weapons around him to take advantage of poor defensive play.
Smith isn't a great option, but he's better than a lot of other quarterbacks this week. He should be viewed as a middle-of-the-pack option.
Week 2 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Alex Smith had one of his best games ever last week, throwing for 368 yards, 4 touchdowns, and zero interceptions. History for a repeat performance is against him, though. In 142 career games, Smith has never had back-to-back 300-yard games. In fact, he's only had six 300-yard games ever.
But while he may not hit that magic 300-yard marker, he's at least shown he can be a different kind of player in 2017. With a developed Tyreek Hill, a star tight end in Travis Kelce, and a talented rookie in Kareem Hunt, Smith has plenty of players around him to have more big games in the future.
Smith faces a decent Eagles defense this week. Philly played well a week ago, but they'll be dealing with a much different offense this week. Smith will be a decent option in Week 2, and should be viewed as a low-end QB1.
Week 1 vs. New England Patriots
Alex Smith faces a Patriots defense in Week 1 that was pretty tough against quarterbacks last season. Over the last five weeks of the 2016 regular season, the defense allowed an average of 221 passing yards and one touchdown. While some changes have been made over the course of the offseason, it's certainly not a strong starting point for Smith.
And while Smith has weapons like Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, neither helped him out a bunch last season. The Chiefs quarterback still averaged just one touchdown per game and only topped 300 yards once.
Smith can be a reliable streaming option on certain weeks, but this won't likely be one. He's ranked in the bottom tier of passers for Week 1.
Player Upside
Alex Smith has always been good at taking care of the football. He's recorded six straight seasons of eight or fewer interceptions. He’s usually a reliable option with a high-floor and his outlook is starting to get better, as he’s coming off of a career-year for passing yards (3,502). His mobility at the position is also a plus, scoring five times on the ground last season.
Smith likely won’t miss much action as he’s started 15 games or more in four straight seasons. He’s a reliable, steady option, who has finished as a top-15 fantasy quarterback in two of the past four seasons.
Player Downside
While Smith is projected to start for the Chiefs this season, you can’t ignore his backup. Kansas City traded up in the first round of the 2017 NFL Draft to select Patrick Mahomes, and there’s a chance he plays if Smith struggles.
Smith's 15 passing touchdowns last season were the fewest he's thrown in a season since becoming a Chief in 2013. He also had his lowest rushing total (134 yards) during his Chiefs tenure. While he can be a steady option, Smith has a very low ceiling, having finished with just four multi-touchdown passing games in 2016.
2017 Bottom Line
In a two-quarterback league, Smith is a fine option, but outside of that, there’s not much to like about him. At best he’s a bye-week filler if you need someone who is going to throw for about 250 yards and a touchdown. While he has some intriguing weapons in Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill, he lost star wideout Jeremy Maclin this offseason.
Divisional Round vs. Pittsburgh
Alex Smith had a decent outing the last time he faced the Steelers. He scored two touchdowns while throwing for 287 yards, his second-highest passing performance of the season, but his two touchdowns came in the fourth quarter as the Chiefs were getting blown out by the Steelers.
The Chiefs would prefer to have a closer game this time around, meaning Alex Smith won't be throwing the ball on most downs. His 50 pass attempts against Pittsburgh was the highest of the season and likely won't be repeatable.
With Smith, you mostly know what you're getting. He's usually reliable for about 200-250 yards with at least one touchdown, and will rarely have a two-score game. He has a high floor and a low ceiling this week against Pittsburgh.
Week 17 vs. San Diego
Alex Smith had a decent fantasy outing last week as he finished with 244 passing yards, one passing touchdown with 44 rushing yards and one score on the ground. He's now scored a rushing touchdown in two straight games.
While Smith certainly isn't the gold standard for fantasy quarterbacks, he'll be on the fantasy radar this week considering Week 17's options are limited. The Chiefs will be playing their starters as they have a chance to win the AFC West.
Smith should be viewed as a low-end QB1 in a game against the Chargers. He had his best game of the season in Week 1 when they last played San Diego (363 yards, three total touchdowns).
Week 16 vs. Denver
Alex Smith had a great matchup last week, and turned in an ugly performance with no touchdowns and an interception. He's been a letdown all year long with just three multi-touchdown passing games.
He'll be a poor option again this week as he faces the very stingy Broncos secondary. Although he had a decent game against them the last time (220 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT) it wasn't worthy of a fantasy start. You'd be best advised to stay away from Smith this week.
Week 15 vs. Tennessee
Alex Smith has thrown for one touchdown or less in six straight games, averaging 220 passing yards in that span. He's certainly consistent, but not in the way that you would hope as a fantasy owner.
He gets a great matchup this week against the Titans, who have allowed 300+ passing yards in six of the last eight games. While this is a favorable matchup for Smith, it's hard to see him excelling, considering he doesn't have blow up games very often.
Smith should play well this week, but it may not translate into fantasy production. He's a QB2 play in Week 15.
Week 14 vs. Oakland
Alex Smith had a solid game last week against Atlanta, completing 21-of-25 passes for 270 yards, but he finished with just one touchdown. He's now had one passing touchdown or less in five straight games. Through 11 starts, he has 11 touchdowns (plus two rushing), which doesn't translate well to fantasy.
This week, Smith gets a matchup against the Raiders, a team he had no touchdowns against earlier in the season. Smith played well in the game from a football perspective, but his stats just aren't enough to warrant value in fantasy format. He'll be a poor option due to his low ceiling.
Week 13 vs. Atlanta
Alex Smith has thrown for three touchdowns in his last four games combined and is averaging under 200 yards passing in those contests. Last week, the opportunity was there as he had 44 pass attempts, but struggled against a tough Broncos secondary.
Smith will get a much more favorable matchup this week against the Falcons. Atlanta has allowed the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, as they've allowed 282 yards through the air on average, a league worst.
This is a great matchup for Smith, but we expect his numbers to remain low due to how this team plays. He has a high ceiling, but for now, he's nothing more than a QB2.
