Week 16 at Houston
A.J. Green has been quiet as the third option in the Bengals passing game. However, Tyler Boyd will probably not play because of a concussion. Green has had eight receptions over the last two games but was held without a catch the previous two games.
Green will face the Texans who are ranked 30th in aFPA to wide receivers. The Bengals passing game only had 89 yards passing last game with Ryan Finley at quarterback. With a bad Texans defense, the numbers should be better but the Bengals might rely on the run as they did on Monday.
Keep Green on the bench despite the favorable matchup. The offense is just not going to produce even if the Bengals play a close game.
Week 8 vs. Tennessee
After only receiving one target three weeks ago, A.J. Green has bounced back nicely with 24 over the past two games. That has produced 15 receptions for 178 yards. The only downside is Green is still looking for his first touchdown of the season.
The Bengals play Tennessee who is ranked 18th in aFPA to wide receivers. All the skill players involved with the Cincy passing game should have some upside this week.
However, despite all the targets and good production the past two games, Green seems to be the third receiver in the pecking order with QB Joe Burrow. He still has value for Week 8, but only as a WR3 or flex in both standard and PPR leagues.
Week 7 vs. Cleveland
The veteran isn't done yet. A.J. Green had his best game of the season with eight receptions for 96 yards. He is still looking for his first touchdown of the season, but it was nice to see him targetted 11 times, the second-highest total this season. The highest total came in the first meeting with this week's opponent Cleveland.
The Browns defense is ranked 31st in aFPA to wide receivers. Green could be on his way to a big game but the issue is there are three legit threats at the position in Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd and Green. Doesn't look like we will know each week who Joe Burrow looks to.
If you have Green on your roster, keep him on the bench for Week 7. Although the numbers last week were encouraging, we want to see more and we still have Higgins and Boyd ahead of him in the rankings at this point.
Week 4 vs. Jacksonville
After a team-high 13 targets back in Week 2, A.J. Green's targets were cut in half. But the results have been disappointing so far in 2020 as he looks like he is still getting comfortable after missing last season. The emergence of rookie Tee Higgins will also affect Green's numbers as QB Joe Burrow has three legit targets in the passing game.
The Jaguars are up next and are 21st in aFPA to wide receivers. It is going to be hard to predict Green week-to-week but the favorable matchup does give us some hope.
Still, we are waiting for Green to break out so we have downgraded him to the bench for Week 4. He will eventually have some big games this season, but we want to see when he gets in that groove with Burrow.
Week 3 at Philadelphia
A.J. Green had a rough game from a production standpoint although it wasn't for lack of trying,. He was targetted a team-high 13 times, but only had three catches for 29 yards. It's surprising consider QB Joe Burrow had a very good game but wasn't on the same page as the veteran.
It's a good matchup for Green against the Eagles who are 26th in aFPA to wide receivers. Philly has had trouble in the secondary to start the season.
It won't be easy for the rookie QB to go on the road and he still needs to find a chemistry with Green. Green only rates a low-end WR3 or Flex in standard leagues for Week 3. He actually should probably remain on your bench in PPR leagues.
Week 2 at Cleveland
The good news is A.J. Green is back on the field. He was targeted nine times which means more than the five receptions he had against the Chargers for 51 yards. Green was the favorite target of rookie quarterback Joe Burrow and Burrow's performance was just okay. If you took a chance on Green in your draft, even though the numbers weren't great, the potential could be there for him to regain his standing as a top receiver in the league.
Green will face the Browns who are 12th in aFPA to wide receivers. Cleveland was burned by Lamar Jackson's legs more than his arm last week, so we are still looking at an average defense at best. Green hasn't faced the Browns since 2017, but he did have some of his biggest games against them during his career.
The Bengals offense will probably remain conservative for the near future with Burrow, but Green should be a major part of the passing game and his number 1 target. But until we see Burrow break out a little bit, be cautious with expectations for Green. He only rates a low-end WR3 or flex for Week 2. Probably some better options for you for now.
Week 1 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
So, the big question regarding Cincinnati 's offense is how good will A.J. Green be after missing the 2019 season? Will he still be their No. 1 receiver? Will he be behind Tyler Boyd? And of course, a rookie quarterback could sidetrack the offense. But Green's track record is very good, so optimism is high in Cincy.
Green will face a very good Chargers secondary who was ranked 4th in aFPA to wide receivers last season. It will be interesting to see how LA will cover the receivers and how they will scheme QB Joe Burrow. All of this affects Green's numbers.
We expect the Bengals to have moderate success in the passing game to start, but we also expect Green to have some success in his return. Green ranks higher than Boyd in standard leagues but behind him in PPR leagues. Start Green as WR3 or Flex for Week 1.
Week 1 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
So, the big question regarding Cincinnati's offense is how good will A.J. Green be after missing the 2019 season? Will he still be their No. 1 receiver? Will he be behind Tyler Boyd? And of course, a rookie quarterback could sidetrack the offense. But Green's track record is very good, so optimism is high in Cincy.
Green will face a very good Chargers secondary who was ranked 4th in aFPA to wide receivers last season. It will be interesting to see how LA will cover the receivers and how they will scheme QB Joe Burrow. All of this affects Green's numbers.
We expect the Bengals to have moderate success in the passing game to start, but we also expect Green to have some success in his return. Green ranks higher than Boyd in standard leagues but behind him in PPR leagues. Start Green as WR3 or Flex for Week 1.
Fantasy Upside
A.J. Green has proven to be a Hall of Fame type receiver over his career. He has six 1,000 receiving yard seasons and has been a WR1 in fantasy since his rookie season. Green will have the opportunity to break-in rookie QB Joe Burrow. The track record for Green is very good and he still was playing at a high level in 2018. Even with plenty of skill players on this offense, the Bengals still see Green as a No. 1 option.
Fantasy Downside
Health. When Green is healthy, he is very good. However, he missed all of 2019 and played in only eight games in 2018. He is 31 years old so even though he takes care of himself, that age is usually a red flag. There is also a chance Burrow could struggle early in his career which would affect all the Bengals receivers.
2020 Bottom Line
Green is due for a bounce-back season after sitting out last season. That might actually help him as he is deemed 100% healthy headed into 2020. Green is ranked 33rd in wide receivers but the ceiling could be higher. We expect 74 receptions for 971 yards. He will have to compete with Tyler Boyd for targets, but will get his share. His ADP of 72 probably has him being taken a little higher based on reputation. If you can get him in the seventh or eighth round, it will be good value.
Fantasy Upside
Even as A.J. Green has entered his 30s, he has continued to put up impressive numbers when he is on the field. He has eclipsed the 1,000 receiving yard mark six out of eight seasons with the exceptions being the two seasons where he suffered injuries. Even last year when he only played nine games, he averaged 15.1 yards per catch and was on pace for another 1,000-yard season. He remains the Bengals No. 1 target and the connection with QB Andy Dalton continues to work for the Cincy offense.
Fantasy Downside
Health is the biggest factor for Green. He missed 7 games in 2018 and 6 games in 2016. And his 2019 training camp started off with an ankle injury. It’s hard to predict what Green will do as his numbers haven’t been as good as they were earlier in his career. Is he finally on the downside of his career as the No. 1 receiver with the emergence of Tyler Boyd?
2019 Bottom Line
Green’s ADP of 33 is about right with risks involved but the potential to be even higher than a WR2 which is what he is considered entering the season. If he stays healthy, we expect him to eclipse the 1,000-yard mark again and score around the 8 touchdown mark. Green might not be a top 10 fantasy receiver but he is close. UPDATE: Green is out 6 to 8 weeks with ligament damage in his ankle. This brings down his stock slightly, depending on if he misses any regular season games.
