Scott Smith’s Best Bets for UFC São Paulo: Almeida vs Lewis
The UFC returns from hiatus with a Fight Night card in Brazil. Naturally, this card will feature a number of Brazilian prospects, including Jailton Almeida, in the main event against fan favorite Derrick Lewis. This card has also lost 3 fights due to various reasons. With a number of wide lines, let’s take a look at which spots we are targeting this week.
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UFC São Paulo Best Bets
Rodrigo Nascimento and Rinat Fakhretdinov (-106, DraftKings)
Fight Breakdown: Rodrigo Nascimento vs Don’Tale Mayes
Don’Tale Mayes is a physical specimen. His striking is above average, and he is at his best when he can stay long and keep his opponents at the end of his strikes. Mayes has a negative striking differential but fights with above-average volume and power. Mayes and Nascimento have fought already, with Nascimento winning via rear naked choke. The problem for Mayes is that he has shown little development during his time in the UFC. He has subpar takedown defense and little to no ability to fight off his back. Nascimento was able to take advantage of this in the first fight and will look to do so again in this fight.
Rodrigo Nascimento has been a bit of an inconsistent fighter during the course of his career. Nascimento is coming off two split-decision victories. Nascimento has solid takedowns, as shown by the two he landed in the first fight with Mayes. When he gets the fight to the ground, he does a solid job with top control. Nascimento’s biggest issue is that he has a tendency to fade as the fight goes on. Nascimento will have a bit more power in the striking department against Mayes, but both fighters are on par with each other as long as the fight is standing. I expect Nascimento to take the fight to the ground, where he has a large advantage over Mayes. Nascimento has proven he has what it takes to beat Mayes and should do so again here.
Fight Breakdown: Rinat Fakhretdinov vs Elizeu Zaleski
Elizeu Zaleski will be a big step up in competition for Rinat Fakhretdinov. Zaleski is no walk in the park for anyone. He is on a two-fight win streak with wins over Abubakar Nurmagomedov and Benoit Saint Denise. Zaleski is an athletic, powerful striker who has shown the ability to carry his conditioning late. He is active on the ground but can be outwrestled and controlled. He was controlled on the ground in his last fight with Nurmagomedov but was able to win with his striking. He will have to land something big or wear down Fakhretdinov in this fight if he is going to have a chance to win.
Rinat Fakhretdinov has shown relentless wrestling and power thus far in his UFC career. He has been dominant with his wrestling up until his last fight when he showed his power with a knockout over Kevin Lee. Fakhretdinov has yet to be tested defensively on the feet because he has controlled everyone with his wrestling. Until someone shows they can stop that, the recipe for success should stay the same. Add in Zaleski’s athleticism and power, and Fakhretdinov should employ the same game plan en route to victory.
Risk: 1.06 units on DraftKings to win 1 unit.
Rodolfo Vieira wins via submission (+175, DraftKings)
This is simply a value play. Nearly all of Vieira’s wins have come by way of submission. Vieira’s jiu-jitsu credentials are well known. He is a powerful athlete with solid power double takedowns. His striking has improved, but it’s not going to be good enough to consistently stand and exchange with Petrosyan for the duration of the fight. The game plan should be wrestling heavy to get the fight to the ground, where Vieira will have a huge advantage. Petrosyan has yet to show any consistency in defending takedowns, and that plays well for Vieira. Petrosyan does show solid scrambling ability and makes it a priority to get up after the fight hits the ground. The danger for Vieira will be in the conditioning department should he struggle to get or keep Petrosyan down. My model has Vieira winning this fight by submission nearly 46% of the time compared to the implied odds of 36%.
Risk: .5 units on DraftKings to win 1.37 units.
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