Fantasy Upside
Raheem Mostert had a solid first season with Miami, topping 1,000 scrimmage yards (1,093 to be exact) in a season for the first time in his career. Mostert had a career-high 181 carries for 891 yards for a solid 4.9 carry average. He was solid as a receiving threat as well, catching 31 passes for 202 yards. Mostert only signed a one-year deal in 2022, but his production led Miami to sign him to another deal so he’ll be staying in 2023. Given his production last year, Mostert should still maintain a sizable role in Miami’s offense.
Fantasy Downside
Mostert started to see his touches decline last season when Jeff Wilson was brought in at the trade deadline. Wilson played his first game in Week 9 and in the eight games after, Mostert saw 10+ carries just three times (compared to six times in the eight games prior). Not only is Wilson back this season, but Miami also spent one of their four draft picks on a promising rookie in Devon Achane. All three backs are likely to see a solid chunk of playing time this season, which means touches overall could be tough to come by.
2023 Bottom Line
Our current projections have Mostert being Miami’s primary ball carrier this season. He’ll likely lead the team in rush attempts and rush yards with little usage as a receiving threat. In terms of fantasy points, we’re projecting Achane to be the better option there given his versatility. The gap closes a lot more when it comes to standard scoring. Mostert still has some of the best speed among running backs in the league, so he’ll likely have a few breakout games if he’s able to break off a big run. But on a week-to-week basis, he’ll likely put up low-end RB3 numbers, especially given his lack of touchdowns. He should be viewed in the RB40-RB50 range as a late-round flier.
