Fantasy Upside
Despite throwing just 21 touchdown passes last season (the second-lowest output since his 16-TD season as a rookie in 2008) to finish as fantasy’s QB19, all of the elements are there for Matt Ryan to have a bounce back campaign. The Falcons still boast one of the top receivers in the NFL in Julio Jones and invested a lot of money in free agent Mohamad Sanu, who at the very least will be an upgrade on Roddy White. Ryan clearly struggled with some of the complexities of Kyle Shanahan’s offense, but should have a better grasp of the system in his second year (especially after organizing a players-only passing camp with 26 of his teammates in Florida back in March). Plus, it wasn’t all bad last season. Ryan still managed to complete 66.3 percent of his passes while throwing for 4,591 yards. He also remains durable, having played 16 games every year outside of 2009 when he missed two games due to turf toe, and Atlanta’s offensive line received a major boost when the team signed center Alex Mack in free agency. The Falcons had a revolving door at the center position last year, so Mack will provide a major upgrade.
Fantasy Downside
Ryan’s numbers last year speak for themselves. He finished with as many turnovers (21) as touchdown passes and was dreadful in the red zone, where the Falcons ranked 18th after finishing sixth in red zone scoring in 2014. The question fantasy owners have to ask themselves if they’re considering Ryan as a value pick in the later rounds is whether or not he’s a fit for Shanahan’s offense. Ryan admitted in January that Shanahan’s system was “too much” for him at times last season, indicating that he wasn’t always comfortable running the offense. We’re talking about an eight-year NFL veteran that graduated from Boston College and who learned two different offenses before Shanahan arrived in 2015. Why did he struggle so much with the system? Maybe the offense was overly complicated for Ryan last season. Maybe Shanahan wasn’t flexible as a play-caller. Or maybe Ryan’s strengths as a signal-caller don’t match what Shanahan asks from his quarterbacks. Either way, way draft Ryan if there’s a possibility he’s not in the most optimal position to succeed?
2016 Bottom Line
With the addition of Sanu and the potential emergence of slot receiver Justin Hardy, Ryan should post more than 21 touchdowns this season. But the yardage number is likely to hover around the same 4,591 that he posted a year ago. Over the past three seasons, Ryan has finished as fantasy’s QB15, QB7 and QB19. It’s reasonable to conclude that he peaked in 2012 and while he’s still a good quarterback, it’s unlikely at 31 that he’s going to post eye-popping numbers playing in Shanahan’s offense. Ryan currently ranks as our QB19 and has an ADP of 12.09 in 10-team leagues (15.01 in 12-team leagues). Keep him in mind as a reliable streaming option for bye weeks, but there will be better options that offer higher upsides for you on draft night.