Fantasy Upside
Matt Ryan won the first regular season MVP award of his career, nearly led the Falcons to a Super Bowl victory, and finished as fantasy's No. 9 overall player in 2017. After posting career-highs in passing yards (4,944), touchdowns (38) and QB Rating (117), Ryan will once again be at the helm of a dangerous Atlanta offense. Skill position players Julio Jones, Mohamed Sanu, Taylor Gabriel, Devonta Freeman, Tevin Coleman and promising tight end Austin Hooper all return, as do four starting offensive linemen. Despite a switch in offensive coordinators (Steve Sarkisian takes over for Kyle Shanahan, who was hired to be the head coach in San Francisco), Ryan is poised for another excellent season.
Fantasy Downside
Before 2017, Ryan had never finished above QB7 in fantasy (he finished as QB2 last year). It's noteworthy that Ryan struggled when Shanahan was hired in 2015. It could take a year to get comfortable with Sarkisian, who has never called plays at the NFL level. Jones also underwent surgery on his left foot in March, which is the third known procedure on that foot. If Jones misses any amount of time, Ryan and the Falcons offense will look vastly different.
2017 Bottom Line
Given the switch in offensive coordinators, it's unlikely Ryan will come close to posting the same touchdown numbers he did a season ago. That doesn't mean he'll have a poor season, but regression is coming. After what he and the Falcons accomplished last season in scoring the most points in the NFL (540), Ryan is sure to be over-drafted this fall. His current ADP of 5.06 in 10-team leagues is extreme. He offers better value in the seventh or eighth round.