2022 Fantasy Upside
Kirk Cousins enters a new era of his NFL career in 2022 with Kevin O'Connell installed as Head Coach in Minnesota, replacing Mike Zimmer's "old-school ball coach" style and philosophies. As for offensive philosophy and resulting statistical production, the coaching change looks like an upgrade for Cousins. Minnesota finished a mediocre 18th in the league in pass rate last season at 58.5% with Zimmer running the show. O'Connell's Super Bowl-winning offense in Los Angeles only finished slightly better (14th in the league), but the Rams defense is far better than Minnesota's and often provided O'Connell with a lead to protect against inferior opponents. The situation will be different for the Vikings this season, and O'Connell's more aggressive approach should yield fantasy benefits for Cousins when contrasted against his role in Zimmer's conservative schemes. Cousins will also benefit from most of his favorite targets returning. Justin Jefferson is already one of the best wide receivers in the NFL, Dalvin Cook is still in the picture, and Adam Thielen has thus far remained productive as he ages. Cousins looks primed to match his production in previous seasons, and potentially exceed it, which would place him firmly in the QB2 range for fantasy purposes and a streaming candidate in single-QB leagues in favorable matchups.
2022 Fantasy Downside
While there are reasons to be excited about Cousins for fantasy this year, he has historically struggled to maintain consistent QB1 status due to his own limitations as a player. Cousins especially struggled to deal with pressure last season behind Minnesota's below-average offensive line. Cousins posted a pressured completion percentage of 45.5%, good for 17th in the NFL, alongside a 29th-place finish in accuracy rating when under pressure. While the Vikings offensive line looks like it has slightly improved since last year, it still projects in the bottom half of the league and Cousins will have to handle pressure better in 2022 to improve his fantasy production.
2022 Bottom Line
Cousins looks like he will occupy a familiar place in the fantasy landscape in 2022. He will be useful in favorable matchups as a streaming QB1, but most weeks he will slot in as a middling QB2. Things could change if O'Connell comes out with an aerial attack in Week 1 and Cousins takes advantage, but expecting Cousins to take some sort of massive step forward under a new Head Coach will likely lead to disappointment.