Fantasy Upside
Eric Decker showed he can play in this league as his numbers were outstanding the past two seasons. Yes, he had Peyton Manning throwing the ball to him, but he was productive. His averages the last two seasons: 86 catches, 130 targets, 1,175 yards and 12 touchdowns. Pretty good. So, the ability is there and the Jets have him as their No. 1 receiver, meaning he should see an increase in targets. Outside factors will determine his effectiveness in 2014.
Fantasy Downside
Going from Manning to Geno Smith is going to diminish Decker's numbers. How much? Pretty significantly. Being the No. 1 receiver in New York will help him get targets, but he also will get more attention from opposing defenses. The Broncos were first in touchdown passes last season while the Jets were last. Although those numbers will improve for QB Geno Smith, we are talking somewhere in the low 20s. Overall, Decker will be happy to get 7 or 8 of those.
Bottom Line
Decker was in a great fantasy situation and although he won't be worthless, his numbers will likely suffer. Again, not terrible, but just a big step backwards. Decker has an ADP of 82 which is right about where he should be selected, especially if you believe Smith will improve this season. He is a solid WR3 for the 2014 season.