Breakout Receiver Model: Week 6
Welcome back to the breakout receiver model. The model has been trained on the previous three weeks of data; each week the model will be updated and used to identify players who may be over- or underperforming the value of their opportunity—whether due to luck, skill, or some mix of the two. We’ll use the model to identify buy-low and sell-high candidates for season-long managers. Then we’ll analyze the main slate to locate players with a higher likelihood of hitting a ceiling performance than the public perceives. Let’s dig into the data for this week.
About the Breakout Receiver Model
The 4for4 data science team, in conjunction with our award-winning projections expert John Paulsen, created the current iteration of a receiver “buy-low” model that uses machine learning to identify underperforming wide receivers and tight ends on the verge of a breakout. The model leverages historical data and recent player performance to determine which players have received opportunity that is typically more valuable than their recent production indicates. Features include air yards and routes-run data to quantify opportunity, plus a proprietary efficiency metric that looks back at the past 10 weeks of individual player performance to better estimate the likelihood of a bounce-back. The model most heavily weights the last three weeks of data.
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