Breakout Receiver Model: Week 5
Welcome back to the Breakout Receiver Model. The model has been trained on the previous three weeks of data; each week, it’s refreshed to identify players who may be over- or underperforming the value of their opportunity—whether due to luck, skill, or some mix of the two. We’ll use it to flag buy-low and sell-high candidates for season-long managers, then analyze the main slate to locate players with a higher-than-perceived chance of hitting a ceiling performance. Let’s dig in.
About the Breakout Receiver Model
The 4for4 data science team, in conjunction with our award-winning projections expert John Paulsen, built the current iteration of a receiver “buy-low” model using machine learning to identify underperforming wide receivers and tight ends on the verge of a breakout. The model leverages historical data and recent player performance to determine which players have earned opportunity that is typically more valuable than their recent production indicates. Features include air yards and routes-run data to quantify opportunity, plus a proprietary efficiency metric that looks back 10 weeks to better estimate the likelihood of a bounce-back. The most recent three weeks are weighted the heaviest.
Underperforming Players (Buy Low)
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