Scott Smith’s Best Bets for UFC 287: Pereira vs Adesanya 2

Apr 07, 2023

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UFC 287 will take place in Miami this week with a rematch between Alex Pereira and Israel Adesanya. This is the fourth meeting between the two in combat sports, with the two of the matchups coming via kickboxing. Pereira seems to have Adesanya’s number, as he has won all three previous meetings, with two coming by knockout. Jorge Masvidal takes on Gilbert Burns in the co-main event in what should be an exciting matchup of Florida-based fighters. This card looks to have some positive spots to target for bets, so let’s dive in.

UFC 287 Best Bets

Israel Adesanya to win (-135, DraftKings)

Alex Pereira vs. Israel Adesanya Fight Breakdown

Pereira is a monster at 185 pounds. It’s amazing that he is able to make that weight, as he is often larger than fighters at light heavyweight. Pereira has been able to solve the puzzle of Adesanya that others have not. There are no secrets in what to expect from Pereira. He is a world-class striker that comes forward with pressure and has no fear in any exchanges. Pereira has such confidence in his striking that he does have some defensive holes in his hands being low at times. Adesanya was able to take advantage by landing cleanly at the end of the first round in their most recent bout. Pereira’s technical ability allows him to compensate with his hands being low, which also allows his thundering left hook to come from abnormal angles. His left hook is his greatest weapon and is ultimately what ended Adesanya’s title reign. Pereira still has work to do on the ground and will need to have worked his takedown defense, as I expect Adesanya to deploy more wrestling in this fight.

Adesanya has beaten the best of the best at middleweight. Pereira simply seems to have his number. To say Adesanya is motivated coming into this fight is an understatement. This is a legacy fight, and it’s hard to predict what will come to Adesanya should he lose to Pereira again. Adesanya used his movement and mixed in some wrestling to win the majority of the most recent fight. Pereira checked a leg kick that led to Adesanya rolling backward and allowing the finishing sequence to occur. Up until that point, it can be said that Adesanya was fighting a perfect fight. Adesanya has slipped up in some interviews and let on that he plans on wrestling in this fight. He had success in that department in the last fight and needs to use it to limit those dangerous exchanges. This fight breakdown is almost exactly as it was last time. Adesanya will look to win minutes with his movement while giving Pereira a myriad of looks, and Pereira will look to land the finisher that wins the moment. I like Izzy to get it done this go-round via decision.

Risk: 1.35 units on DraftKings to win 1 unit.