Week 17 at Kansas City Chiefs
The Raiders end their season coming off an emotional win in what could have been the last NFL game played in Oakland but now walk into Arrowhead for a game the Chiefs need to win to ensure home field advantage. Combine that with an implied team total of fewer than 20 points this week, and this is an offense that carries great fantasy risk to end the regular season. Kansas City has struggled against the pass in terms of aFPA to WRs, and negative game script could be a benefit here. Jordy Nelson has posted four consecutive double-digit PPR performances. With some stars resting Week 17, Nelson creeps into WR2 consideration to end the season.
Week 16 vs. Denver Broncos
Oakland hosts Denver as a home underdog with an implied team total of just 20 points. In what could be the last game the Raiders ever play in Oakland, one would expect Jon Gruden to have this team ready to play well. In fantasy though, we care more about quantifiable factors more than narratives. Denver is 15th in the league in aFPA to WRs. The secondary has weakened with injuries this late in the season, but the Raiders' receivers have not shown enough this season to have confidence starting any of them. That includes Jordy Nelson, who had just 30 yards against the Broncos earlier this season.
Week 15 at Cincinnati Bengals
The Raiders head to the eastern time zone for an early kickoff in Cincinnati. Oakland is a road underdog with a middle of the road implied team total, which should lead to negative game script. However, the Bengals are top 10 in aFPA to WRs, meaning Derek Carr should continue to target his tight end and backs most often. We can't recommend any Raiders receiver at this point in the season. In fact, none crack our top 50 wideouts for Week 15.
Week 14 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Raiders have an implied team total of fewer than 21 points, among the bottom ten teams in the league this week. The Steelers defense has had its struggles, but recently, that has come against offenses much better than Oakland's. Pittsburgh still ranks top 10 in aFPA to WRs. We are not comfortable starting any Oakland wideout in the fantasy playoffs, as none rank inside our top 40 PPR rankings at the position. That's what happens when a unit of seven receivers posts just two double-digit PPR performances over the past four weeks.
Week 13 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City is ranked in the top 10 in aFPA to WRs. A very high over/under in this game keeps the Raiders from the bottom teams in implied team total for Week 13, suggesting some potential negative game script to bolster a pedestrian Oakland passing attack. We just can't trust these Oakland receivers at all for the rest of the season. Over the past month, seven Raiders receivers have combined for just one double-digit PPR game (Brandon LaFell, 10.9, Week 11). That is pathetic passing game production. Stay away from this entire unit in Week 13.
Week 11 at Arizona Cardinals
The Raiders are so bad at this point in the season that Oakland is a 5.5-point underdog to a two-win team this week. The Raiders implied team total of 17.5 points is also the lowest on the slate this week by a full two points. That's not a recipe for fantasy success. The Cardinals are sixth in the league in aFPA to WRs but only 27th against RBs, potentially foreshadowing a run-heavy attack for Oakland this week. That doesn't bode well for a receiving group where none of the wideouts have averaged five targets per game over the past two weeks. Running back Jalen Richard and tight end Jared Cook are the primary pass catchers in this horrific offense. No Oakland receiver is a fantasy consideration.
Week 10 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Let's check in on the Raiders offense as they begin the second half of their season: 19th in total offense, 28th in scoring offense and 24th in rushing offense. The Jon Gruden era is going swimmingly so far. The Raiders also have one of the lowest implied team totals this week against Los Angeles. The receivers aren't seeing nearly enough targets either to provide help to starting lineups. Jordy Nelson has just seven targets in two games since Amari Cooper was traded. He's not a viable starter.
Week 9 at San Francisco 49ers (Thursday)
Here's how the targets played out in Oakland's first game without Amari Cooper: Jalen Richard 8, Jared Cook 5, Jordy Nelson 4, Seth Roberts 4, Brandon LaFell 4, Doug Martin 2, Keith Smith 1. Feels like Washington West, huh? Derek Carr, like Alex Smith, did not heavily target his receivers. Nelson is clearly the best option among wideouts in this offense with a decent match-up this week, but without reliable target volume, he's more a dart throw FLEX play in Week 9, hoping for a touchdown.
Week 8 vs. Indianapolis Colts
It's hard to know what to expect from the Raiders receivers now in terms of fantasy production with Amari Cooper traded. Jordy Nelson should see an increase in volume, but he may also draw top cornerbacks in coverage now too. The Colts are just 25th in aFPA to WRs this season, but with an implied team total that's only middle of the pack in Week 8, this is a definite gamble to count on Nelson as a WR3/FLEX in Week 8.
Week 6 vs. Seattle Seahawks (London)
Jordy Nelson has scored in three consecutive weeks and faces a Seattle defense in London that is just 27th in aFPA to WRs. His red zone usage is promising, but his overall target totals can not be relied upon for consistency. In three of five games this year, Nelson has only seen four targets. He's a dart throw in Week 6, hoping for another touchdown, but you should look for a more reliable option, if available.
