Week 5 at Los Angeles Chargers
This game has the second-highest over/under of Sunday and Monday's games, but which Jordy Nelson will show up this week? The one with eight targets per game from the past two weeks or the afterthought of the offense in Weeks 1 and 2? The Chargers do rank just 30th in aFPA to WRs this season. So there's a path to fantasy production for Nelson if you're in a deep league, but for most re-draft leagues, he still belongs on your bench. His red zone usage is promising though for potential starting consideration in future weeks (four RZ targets, two touchdowns).
Week 4 vs. Cleveland Browns
Jordy Nelson exploded last week after poor performances the first two weeks. But his opponent this week, Cleveland, ranks fourth in aFPA to WRs, illustrating this matchup is closer to what Nelson faced the first two weeks of the season, as opposed to Miami's beatable secondary last week. Nelson needs to show us weekly consistency in targets before considering him for lineups in redraft leagues.
Week 3 at Miami Dolphins
The Raiders have the dreaded cross-country, early eastern time zone kickoff Sunday in Miami. Las Vegas has taken note, too, as the Raiders have a low 20.5-point implied team total. Jordy Nelson only has eight targets and 53 yards on the season. The Dolphins are sixth in PPR points allowed to WRs. Getting the picture? Nelson is not a starter for your team in Week 3.
Week 2 at Denver Broncos
The Broncos were top-five last season in aFPA to WRs. Denver also held Seahawks WRs to just seven receptions last week. Jordy Nelson only saw four targets in his debut and gets another negative matchup. The Raiders have an implied team total under 20 points, which is very low by Vegas standards. All signs point to benching Jordy.
Week 1 vs. Los Angeles Rams
It's time for another Jon Gruden era. This one starts with the Raiders having a bottom-half implied team total in Vegas for Week 1. Jordy Nelson will face a stingy defense that added Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib at corner to a defense that was already above average in aFPA to WRs last season before those big-name additions. Nelson's poor play last year and a tough matchup make him nothing more than a FLEX consideration for Week 1. It's likely touchdown or bust for him.
Fantasy Upside
Jordy Nelson disappointed in Green Bay last season after Aaron Rodgers went down with a season-ending injury, but he walks into an offense with a lot of targets left up for grabs with the departure of Michael Crabtree. If Nelson can play well enough to earn those 100+ targets, he could easily return to fantasy relevance.
Fantasy Downside
Nelson is entering his age-33 season. The production of receivers who change teams tends to decline unless the player is getting an upgrade at quarterback. Nelson is likely to see a decrease in targets and will definitely see a downgrade at quarterback.
2018 Bottom Line
Many reports out of Oakland do not expect the Raiders under Jon Gruden to be pass-heavy this season. Nelson is being drafted in the ninth round. According to our rankings, there are better options among receivers at that point in drafts.
Week 16 vs. Minnesota Vikings
Even the return of Aaron Rodgers last week couldn't help Jordy Nelson, who had just 3 catches for 28 yards. That's been his typical line basically since Week 7. There's no real reason to think that's going to suddenly change with a tough matchup against the Vikings this week. Nelson is a FLEX play and nothing els—and not a good one at that.
Week 15 at Carolina Panthers
Jordy Nelson owners can celebrate the return of Aaron Rodgers. After weeks of not being a fantasy facto—including 4 catches for 33 yards last week—Nelson should go back to being a regular scoring threat and should be once again viewed as a WR2 moving forward.
Week 14 at Cleveland Browns
Jordy Nelson has been nothing if not consistent with Brett Hundley. Unfortunately, the consistent level of production has not been good. While he had a five-game high of 5 receptions, they went for just 17 yards. Nelson's production level shouldn't give you any faith in him having any kind of a breakout game. He should not be in your lineup. Hope is not a plan.
Week 13 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Jordy Nelson had just 3 catches for 11 yards last week and it's now clear he is entirely dependent upon Aaron Rodgers being in the lineup. There's always the chance of a touchdown, especially against Tampa's defense, but at this point, it's tough to recommend Nelson as anything more than an emergency FLEX option.
