Week 8 at Minnesota Vikings
If you need to play Blake Jarwin Week 8, it may be time to turn to DFS. Jarwin has not had multiple catches in a game since Week 3 and has only flirted with double-digit fantasy points of late because of touchdowns. Unless your league requires three tight ends in a lineup, look elsewhere in Week 8.
Week 5 vs Giants
Jarwin is playing up to 20% fewer snaps per game than Dalton Schultz and is nothing more than a touchdown-dependent option in tight end-premium leagues.
Week 4 vs Carolina Panthers
Blake Jarwin played the role of the “other tight end” Week 3, only seeing two targets and playing just over 55% of snaps. The Carolina Panthers are not necessarily a pass funnel defense but are more likely to get beat by receiver and tight ends than running backs. Playing a Cowboy tight end is a risky proposition, especially if Dalton Schultz and Jarwin continue to have on-and-off weeks.
Week 3 vs Eagles
The pendulum swung slightly back towards Blake Jarwin Week 2 as he collected three receptions on four targets for the second consecutive week. Unless Amari Cooper sits Week 3 (bruised ribs) it is difficult to peg one of Jarwin or Dalton Schultz as a tight end to target. A Cooper inactive situation gives Jarwin an opportunity to run routes outside as the Cowboys receiver depth dwindles.
Week 2 vs Chargers
As long as the receiving work is split between Blake Jarwin and Dalton Schultz, it is difficult to trust either. Jarwin caught three of four targets for 20 yards in Week 1 compared to Schultz’s 6/6/45. It is only one week but this is not the bounce back Jarwin users were hoping for.
Week 1 vs Buccaneers
There is a lot of unknown at the tight end position in Dallas. Blake Jarwin is listed as the TE2 on their unofficial depth chart behind Dalton Schultz but was paid like their number one ahead of 2020. The Buccaneers defense is good but struggled against the tight end position last season, ranking 22nd in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to the position.
Fantasy Upside
Blake Jarwin enters year two of his four-year deal with Dallas and stands to benefit as a field-stretching option between the hashes. He entered 2020 as the favorite to be Dallas’s lead tight end with the retirement of Jason Witten but suffered a torn ACL Week 1 after one reception. Jarwin was replaced by Dalton Schultz and put up TE14 numbers with Andy Dalton as his quarterback once Dak Prescott was lost for the season. Jarwin as the lead tight end on a high-powered offense puts him well within the TE1 landscape.
Fantasy Downside
How will Jarwin look once training camp opens? He will be 10 months removed from surgery and will have to work his way into “game shape.” Jarwin also has to compete with Schultz after he produced more than respectable numbers as the starter. Schultz is also a better blocker, which could keep Jarwin off the field in three-wide receiver sets. A committee approach all but mitigates Jarwin’s fantasy upside. Any setback in his ACL recovery also hurts his value.
2021 Bottom Line
Jarwin is being paid like he is the top option at tight end in Dallas. That may be the only way he is the choice with an ACL injury on his chart and a talented second tight end ready to take his role. That said, Jarwin is the better athlete and if given the majority of the snaps is firmly in the conversation for top 10 fantasy tight end production.
Week 1 vs. Los Angeles Rams
Blake Jarwin has intriguing sleeper appeal as the starting tight end in a high-powered offense, but there is too much uncertainty surrounding his role to start him as a TE1 in Week 1 against the Rams. He can be deployed as an upside TE2 in deep leagues given the projected high-scoring nature of the Sunday night game between the Rams and Cowboys.
Fantasy Upside
Jason Witten is gone and that means Blake Jarwin should take over as the starting tight end in Dallas this season. Jarwin’s opportunities have been limited to this point in his career but he has shown flashes of talent when given the chance. Jarwin attracted a modest 41 targets in 2019, but he turned those into 8.9 yards per target (sixth among tight ends) and 2.37 yards per pass route (eighth among tight ends). Witten leaving in free agency should bring an increase in snaps and targets for Jarwin this season. Jarwin’s outlook is also bolstered by him being attached to a Cowboys’ offense that looks poised to be one of the best in the league in 2020. Jarwin’s size (6-foot-5) translates well to the red zone and his ceiling will grow substantially if the Cowboys decide to feature him near the goal line.
Fantasy Downside
The primary concern for Jarwin is his spot in the pecking order of the Dallas offense. The Cowboys are loaded at the skill positions outside of Jarwin, meaning he will likely be no better than the fourth or fifth option in the passing game. The dynamic wide receiver trio of Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, and Ceedee Lamb will soak up a massive portion of Dak Prescott’s targets, so there is a real chance Jarwin is left fighting for scraps with running backs Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard. Jarwin will have his role, but there are simply too many mouths to feed in the Dallas passing game to have confidence he will provide consistent production.
2020 Bottom Line
Jarwin possesses intriguing upside but faces the possibility of playing a bit part in the high-powered Dallas offense. An injury to any one of Cooper, Gallup, or Lamb would improve his outlook substantially. As it stands, Jarwin is an intriguing flier for those that like to wait until the late rounds to take a tight end, but he also has a low floor and should not be counted on as a weekly fantasy starter.
Week 10 vs Minnesota
Blake Jarwin only had one reception on Monday but it went for 42 yards and a touchdown. Jarwin is only good for a catch or two a game so that limits his fantasy impact. Keep Jarwin on the waiver wire at this time.
