DraftKings Week 10 GPP Breakdown
This is an interesting week for GPPs. It is more likely to be higher-scoring than last week, with Vegas installing over/unders of 48+ for seven games on the main slate. Instead of one clear-cut cheap option at RB as there was the past two weeks, there are a quite a few options, but none that stand out quite as much as Devontae Booker two weeks ago or Charcandrick West last week. One thing that is similar to last week is that we have an expensive RB in a dream spot. Last week I settled at about 30% exposure to Ezekiel Elliott while the field had ~50%, but I like David Johnson even more than Elliott last week. Unlike Elliott, Johnson is at home, and unlike the Browns, the 49ers run defense is historically bad. So while Elliott wasn’t listed in this space last week, (spoiler) you will see DJ.
As always, the players listed are players I’m in favor of having equal or more exposure as the field to, and are generally ranked in order of leverage, so you'll usually see the cheapest or lowest-owned players listed higher.
Ben Roethlisberger $6,800 vs. DAL
Since 2014, Big Ben averages 342.4 yards and 2.94 TDs per game passing at home, compared to just 280.2 yards and 1.06 TDs on the road. He is a home favorite with an implied total above 26 going against an unimposing Cowboys defense (17th in QB aFPA) that will be without two key members of their secondary in cornerback Morris Claiborne and safety Barry Church.
Russell Wilson $6,200 @ NE
I think we saw enough from Wilson last week (292 total yards, 3 TDs on just 47 snaps, including a rushing TD) to confidently fire him up at his lowest price point since Week 13 of last season. The Seahawks have been the fifth-most pass-heavy team over the past three weeks (68.6%) and the Pats rank 24th in QB aFPA.
Philip Rivers $6,700 vs. MIA
Rivers always carries 300-yard, three-TD upside at a palatable cost and ownership, and this week is no different as a home favorite with an implied total of 26.5 against a mediocre-at-best Dolphins pass defense (15th in QB aFPA).