Streaming Tight Ends: Week 4 Targets

Streaming Tight Ends: Week 4 Targets

By TJ Hernandez (Associate Editor), last update Sep 29, 2015

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TJ is a former full-time poker player who has been playing fantasy football for more than a decade. After online poker was outlawed, TJ ended his poker career and dedicated himself to fantasy football. His background in poker statistics and analytics translates to success in both daily and season-long fantasy football.

Follow TJ Hernandez on Twitter: @TJHernandez.

Week 3 served as an early season reminder to how much variance is inherent at the tight end position. Unless your fantasy tight end is one of the few tight ends that regularly sees double digit targets, a touchdown is almost a necessity to rank near the top in a given week, as players like Owen Daniels and Clay Harbor finished in the top 10 at the position, despite low catch and yardage totals.

With Ladarius Green sidelined with a concussion in Week 3, we were left with just two streaming picks, both who underwhelmed mightily. Jared Cook put up an absolute dud in a game where all of the firepower came before kickoff, and Crockett Gillmore was out-produced by rookie tight end Maxx Williams.

Through the first three weeks of the season, our tight end streamers are averaging 8.8 PPR fantasy points per game, or TE22 numbers. The optimal tight end streaming candidate is posting 13.5 PPR fantasy points per contest, which equates to the TE11 on the season. Those numbers will come up.

For those new to tight end streaming or the Tight End By Waiver Wire (TEBWW) strategy, the basic premise is to identify a waiver wire tight end with a favorable matchup that is likely to post TE1 caliber fantasy points. The foundation for the matchup research is 4for4’s Schedule-Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed (aFPA) metric. As the season progresses, aFPA gets more and more reliable. Volume and efficiency metrics will also be considered when combing the waivers for tight end streamers. 

TEBWW candidates must be available in at least 40% of Yahoo leagues, in order to ensure that the picks are readily available in most leagues. As always, be sure to consider 4for4’s weekly rankings in case a highy ranked player fell through the cracks in your league.

On to Week 4:


Charles Clay (BUF) vs New York Giants

Besides the fact that Charles Clay is just playing well in this offense with Tyrod Taylor, all the signs point toward a favorable situation for the Bills' tight end. Clay is currently tied for 11th among all tight ends with 17 targets and he ranks among the more efficient tight ends, posting 0.21 PPR fantasy points per snap, according to the Player Snap App

Through three weeks, the Giants appear to be an ideal target for tight end streamers. New York has allowed 20.9 schedule adjusted PPR fantasy points per game, the fourth highest total in the league. The Bills are favored by six points at home in a game that has one of the higher over/unders of the week at 46.5, so scoring should be relatively abundant here. 

Clay is owned in just 20% of Yahoo leagues, but another TE1 performance could cause that number to skyrocket, as he has the potential to become a top 12 tight end.

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