Streaming Tight Ends: Week 10 Targets

Streaming Tight Ends: Week 10 Targets

By TJ Hernandez (Associate Editor), last update Nov 10, 2015

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TJ is a former full-time poker player who has been playing fantasy football for more than a decade. After online poker was outlawed, TJ ended his poker career and dedicated himself to fantasy football. His background in poker statistics and analytics translates to success in both daily and season-long fantasy football.

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For those new to tight end streaming, the idea is to identify a waiver wire tight end with a favorable matchup who is likely to post TE1 caliber fantasy points. The foundation for the matchup research is 4for4’s Schedule-Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed (aFPA) metric. As the season progresses and more data is available, aFPA gets more and more reliable. Volume and efficiency metrics are also considered when searching the waivers for tight end streamers. 

In Week 9, two out of the three streaming picks finished as a TE1, while Heath Miller lost his chance at a TE1 finish when the goal line score went to rookie tight end, Jesse James, instead of the veteran Miller. After nine weeks, tight end streamers are averaging 9.5 PPR fantasy points per week, with optimal picks averaging 14.9 points, which would rank as the overall TE8 on the season.

Streaming candidates must be available in at least 40 percent of Yahoo leagues, in order to ensure the picks are readily available in most leagues. As always, be sure to consider 4for4’s weekly rankings in case a highly-ranked player is still available in your league.

Here are the tight end streaming picks for Week 10:


Kyle Rudolph vs. Oakland

If you stream the tight end position, the first thing that you should do every week is see who Oakland is playing and try to claim the opposing tight end. The Raiders have given up a touchdown to a tight end in every week, except for one, and have allowed a league-high nine touchdowns to the position. When adjusted for strength of schedule, Oakland is allowing a league-worst 19.1 PPR fantasy points per game.

Since the emergence of Stefon Diggs, Kyle Rudolph has seen his volume wane, but his value comes in his scoring opportunities. Rudolph ranks in the top-10 among tight ends in red zone targets and his eight targets inside the 20 account for 30 percent of the Vikings total red zone targets. Rudolph is available in 56 percent of Yahoo leagues.


Richard Rodgers vs. Detroit

Rodgers has been completely touchdown dependant, but this is as good of a week as any for the Packers tight end to find the end zone. Green Bay is projected to score 29.25 points, the second highest total of the week. The Packers have relied on the pass when in the red zone, with 83 percent of their red zone scores coming through the air, and Rodgers has accounted for the second-most red zone targets on the team.

The Lions rank in the bottom-third of the league against tight ends, with 14 aFPA to the position, and they have been atrocious against the pass overall. Detroit has allowed a league high 73.2 percent completion percentage and rank near the bottom of the league in touchdown rate allowed, giving up a score on 5.6 percent of pass attempts. Owned in just 25 percent of Yahoo leagues, Rodgers could easily catapult into the TE1 ranks this week with a score or two.


Eric Ebron at Green Bay 

4for4 Senior DFS Editor, Chris Raybon, has spoken ad nauseum about the positive correlation opposing passing games can have on each other, but the concept should be translated to season long as well, especially when we are looking for upside with something like a tight end streamer. The premise is if one team’s passing game goes off, the opposition will likely have to throw to keep up. This game is a chance to take advantage of that idea.

No team has thrown more than the Lions this season, who have passed on 69 percent of their plays, and that number could be even higher this week, as they will likely be trailing in Green Bay. Given scoring opportunities, Detroit has actually thrown slightly more than their overall average, opting to pass on 71 percent of their plays in the red zone. Ebron hasn’t had the highest red zone volume, but he has been efficient, converting all three of his red zone targets into scores. 

The Packers have been relatively generous to tight ends, allowing 13 schedule adjusted fantasy points per game to the position, ranking in the bottom half of the league. Eric Ebron is available in 76 percent of Yahoo leagues.

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