DraftKings Week 6 Values and Top Plays

DraftKings Week 6 Values and Top Plays

By Jonathan Bales (Daily Fantasy Expert), last update Oct 9, 2014

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Jonathan Bales is a DraftKings Pro and the author of the Fantasy Football for Smart People book series. His latest book, How to Win at Daily Fantasy Sports, is a data-driven guide to winning on DraftKings. He is also (unofficially) sponsored by GrubHub.

Follow Jonathan Bales on Twitter: @BalesFootball.

At around 5:30pm EST on Sunday, I was in 85th place out of 92,400 lineups in the Millionaire Maker with more player minutes remaining than everyone ahead of me. Now I’m in debt because I already started spending the $1 million prize that I didn’t win.


But it’s totally cool, because DraftKings is performing an encore of the Millionaire Maker in Week 6, so I’ll just win that one instead. With over 90k lineups, I’d estimate that each of my teams will have right around a 1-in-5 chance of winning. Maybe 1-in-4, but I don’t want to be too aggressive with my estimate.

Seriously though, this is the first time any of us are dealing with fields of this size, so it’s pretty clear we need to really consider expected usage rates and perhaps get away from the popular plays to create a unique lineup. I explained how to balance value and utilization last week.

But in addition to strategizing for the Millionaire Maker, I’m really pumped for the new “World’s Biggest 50/50” leagues that DraftKings is running. I had a lot of success with those last week and, with the amount of traffic the Millionaire Maker seems to be bringing in, I think the overall level of competition in all league types is going to progressively decline. It’s awesome to dream about becoming a fantasy football millionaire and I’ll definitely take some shots this weekend, but the possibility of sustainable bankroll growth provided by these 50/50s is just as alluring to me.

With that said, I’m going to stick to pure value plays in the first section of today’s article—the type of players you should be considering in cash games—before moving on to the “Strictly GPP” section. Again, I’ll try to go contrarian there so you have some ideas of who might be a valuable under-the-radar option for the Millionaire Maker.

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DraftKings Week 6 Value Plays

High QB: Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay at Miami, $8400

The choice here for me is between Rodgers and Peyton Manning. I think Manning is the safer choice against the Jets and I’ll have some exposure to him as well, but I’d really like to pay up for running backs this week, too, and Rodgers allows for $1,000 in cap relief as compared to Manning.

DraftKings has Rodgers’ matchup with the Dolphins ranked as the seventh-worst, but we have it as just the 21st-most difficult after accounting for Miami’s opponents. My only concern is that Rodgers has thrown the ball more than 33 times just once this year, but I think that’s due more to weird game scripts than anything else.


Low QB: Nick Foles, Philadelphia vs NY Giants, $6800

Of all the cheap quarterbacks, Foles must be the most reliable, especially in terms of his anticipated workload. He’s thrown at least 37 passes in every game this year and, despite struggling in terms of efficiency, he’s still actually a low-end QB1 on DraftKings in terms of fantasy PPG.


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