Week 6 FanDuel Optimal Plays

Week 6 FanDuel Optimal Plays

By Jonathan Bales (Daily Fantasy Expert), last update Oct 10, 2013

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Jonathan Bales is a DraftKings Pro and the author of the Fantasy Football for Smart People book series. His latest book, How to Win at Daily Fantasy Sports, is a data-driven guide to winning on DraftKings. He is also (unofficially) sponsored by GrubHub.

Follow Jonathan Bales on Twitter: @BalesFootball.

I’ve been profitable on FanDuel all five weeks thus far. It’s highly unlikely that I’ll be able to keep that up all year, but FanDuel certainly represents an awesome money-making opportunity. There are so many novice owners there that it’s pretty easy to maintain at least a 60 percent heads-up winning percentage if you’re targeting weak players. And through five weeks, I’m close to 80 percent.

That’s why I transferred most of my heads-up action to FanDuel. I started with that strategy last week, profiting all of... 12 dollars! Since I’m splitting the staking profits with Josh Moore, that’s six bucks in my pocket. I live in New York City, guys. Six bucks barely covers the tip on my delivery each day. And yes I order food seven days a week. #BloggerLife

Side rant that has nothing to do with football: Why does everyone complain about NYC cab prices? There’s so much competition that they’re actually incredibly cheap relative to many other cities. Ever been to Atlantic City? I took a cab from Caesar’s to Borgata once. It’s like a mile and I couldn’t buy anyone Christmas presents that year.

Back to football.

My FanDuel account currently has $1,157.66 in it—up from the original $600.00. I’ll likely put somewhere around $500 into heads-up matches on FanDuel this week.

That might sound like WAY too much, but don’t forget that my true bankroll is still well over $2k. Since I’m basically transferring my heads-up money at other sites into FanDuel, I can afford to play more. I won’t need to do this, but it’s pretty easy to move cash from one account to another.

Anyway, let’s get to the values.


Week 6 FanDuel Value Plays

QB Brandon Weeden vs. DET $5000

The Chad Henne Express has worked out really well for me so far this year. Oh, that’s right, Henne has single-handedly cost me about a grand. Maybe Weeden is the bottom-dwelling quarterback I need to get behind.

I actually like both Henne and Weeden this week if you’re going low. And there’s a certain high-priced tight end you’ll want in all of your FanDuel lineups, so it makes sense to use a high-low strategy. At just $5000, Weeden is very unlikely to kill your heads-up lineups. He’s not tournament-worthy, though.


RB Knowshon Moreno vs. JAX $7000

The Broncos are 27-point favorites over the Jags. Moreno is the Broncos’ primary running back and he’s ranked in the top 10 in points on FanDuel, yet 14 backs cost more. Get him in your lineups.


WR Cecil Shorts @DEN $6300

Not only is it safe to play pretty much any Broncos player, but it’s also safe to play the opposing quarterback and receivers. They run more plays than normal and, because they’re guaranteed to be losing, it’s pretty likely they’ll air it out 40-plus times.

Shorts is still leading the NFL in targets, and he saw 11 more last week even with Justin Blackmon in the lineup.


TE Jimmy Graham @NE $8700

If Graham isn’t in every single one of my FanDuel lineups this week, it will be close. FanDuel still underprices their elite players, and Graham is severely mispriced in Week 6. He’s a great bet in heads-up and a must-play in tournaments.


FanDuel Optimal Week 6 Lineups

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