Do Defenses Repeat Fantasy Football Performances?

We often turn to strength of schedule as a tool in determining a player’s potential for success over the course of a season. In this study, we retreated to a dark corner of the fantasy library and complied defensive data from 2014–2024, in an effort to see if fantasy points allowed to each position correlated strongly, somewhat, or not all from one year to the next, hoping for a sticky stat or two to sink our teeth into.

Below is a position-by-position analysis of the best and worst defenses in terms of half-PPR fantasy points allowed last season, and what it all potentially means for 2025.

* Advanced metrics courtesy of 4for4's NFL Team Stat Explorer.

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Fantasy Points Allowed to Quarterbacks

When examining year-to-year fantasy points allowed across all positions, points allowed to quarterbacks had the highest correlation coefficient of 0.26, which is still on the lower end of moderate. The top-five defenses against signal-callers repeated their performance 30% of the time the next season, with an average finish of DEF13.

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On the other side of the spectrum, the defenses in the bottom five versus quarterbacks ended up there again 20% of the time, with an average ending rank of DEF21.

The Cowboys didn't struggle as much as some of these other defenses against the pass, but their work against rushing QBs was their downfall in 2024. Dallas allowed the most touchdowns via the legs of signal callers in the NFL last season (10), along wth the most rushing yards to QBs (553). Carolina had a massive freefall from 2023, where they allowed the third fewest fantasy points to QBs.

The Panthers surrendered the most TDs to the QB position (35) in 2024 and were 30th in the league in explosive pass percentage, which ranks the percentage of passing plays that gain at least 15 yards. The Jags allowed the most passing yards and sat 31st in explosive pass percentage, while the Falcons yielded just one fewer TD to the QB position than the league-high Panthers.

2025 Outlook: Dallas was decimated by injuries on defense last year and likely won't end up in this column again in 2026. Besides the Cowboys, the Panthers have the best chance to climb out of the basement this season as they spent the third-most (+$38.4M) on defense this offseason, adding safety Trevon Moehring, defensive tackles Tershawn Wharton and Bobby Brown, and linebacker Patrick Jones. Carolina also drafted two defensive ends, Nic Scourton in the second round and Princely Umanmielen in the third round. They likely won't be draftable for fantasy purposes, but could be in the streaming conversation at times this season.

Chicago moved up a whopping 18 spots against QBs in 2024, yielding the fewest total fantasy points by surrendering the least passing TDs (17) in the NFL and just one rushing TD to signal callers, which sat second. The Dolphins shut down any mobile QBs, with not a single rushing touchdown from the position and just 176 total rushing yards from all NFL quarterbacks in 2024, which was the second fewest. Green Bay was balanced in defending their end zone to QBs, allowing 23 passing scores, which sat ninth, and only one rushing TD to enemy QBs, which was the second lowest number.

Philly allowed the fewest passing yards per game in the NFL last season (177.3) while the Vikings' secondary was their fantasy hero, posting 24 interceptions in 2024, which was the most picks in the league by five. Minnesota also yielded just one rushing TD to opposing QBs.

2025 Outlook: The Eagles, Vikings, and Packers could end up near the top again in 2025 and are all top 10 fantasy defenses in 4for4's early ranks. Chicago could have a tough time repeating as they will likely be on the field less due to a potentially upgraded offense. Miami is a question mark heading into the season, as they lost Jevon Holland, and their secondary is sketchy after Jalen Ramsey, who is still the subject of trade rumors.

Fantasy Points Allowed to Running Backs

The running back position proved the second-highest year-to-year correlation in terms of FPA at .23, which makes sense as the good teams tend to remain that way, and game script is extremely important for running back production. The five defenses that finished the best against rushers repeated 20% of the time with an average ending rank of DEF12.

For the poor defenses, the five worst units found themselves in the bottom 32% of the time in the following season, with an average rank of DEF19.

The Panthers allowed the most rushing yards (2,520) and touchdowns (18) to enemy backs last season. Also, they had the most runs against them in the NFL (486) and the worst rush EPA per play (.13). Jacksonville yielded the second-most rushing yards and had the fifth worst rush EPA per play, while allowing 16 rushing TDs to RBs, which was just two off the most in the league.

Despite being first against QBs in 2024, the Bears gave up the third-most half-PPR points to RBs. They surrendered the second-most rushing yards and the most TDs, with the 29th place designation in explosive rush percentage - the percent of running plays that gain at least 10 yards. After giving up the fourth-fewest fantasy points in half-PPR scoring to RBs in 2023, the 49ers slid 24 spots last season. They yielded 18 rushing TDs, which tied for the most in the NFL and were also 29th in rush EPA per play. Buffalo struggled to defend pass-catching backs, as they surrendered the most receiving yards to the position (750) along with the second-highest number of TDs via the air to RBs.

2025 Outlook: Buffalo should not be here next season as they made their defensive front-seven a priority in the offseason, first by adding Joey Bosa via free agency and then drafting two DTs and an EDGE with three of their first four picks in their year's NFL Draft.

The Eagles shut down the end zone for RBs last season, as they only allowed five rushing TDs and zero through the air to enemy backs. After ending 2023 10th against RBs, the Chiefs moved up eight spots to allow the second-fewest in half-PPR scoring to the position. KC yielded just 70.4 rushing yards per contest, which sat third, and they also did not give up any receiving TDs to opposing RBs in 2024.

With a strong turnaround after a finish of 22nd in fewest half-PPR points allowed in 2023, the Chargers ended third in that category last year. LA let RBs cross the pylon via their legs just four times all of last season, and they ranked sixth in explosive rush percentage. Baltimore was stout in most categories, as they allowed the fewest total rushing yards (1,085), had the lowest explosive rush percentage (6.58%), and were second in rush EPA per play.

2025 Outlook: All five of these defenses should be solid again this season and be drafted among the top 10 for fantasy purposes.

Fantasy Points Allowed to Wide Receivers

This is where we start to get very little year-to-year correlation, mostly due to the volatility of the position. Of the best five defenses versus pass-catchers, 24% repeated the next season, with an average rank of DEF13. At the bottom, the five least efficient groups against the receiver were there again 24% of the time, with an end ranking of DEF19.

It's not surprising to see two repeat offenders from this article's bottom QB section again for WRs. The Falcons allowed the most TDs to WRs and the fourth most yards, while Jacksonville gave up the third most receiving yards to the position. Minnesota yielded the most receptions to wideouts in 2024 (255) and the second-most yards (3,115), while allowing 18 scores to the position.

Detroit was 30th in 2023 in fantasy points allowed to WRs, so sadly, only moved up two spots last season. They surrendered 244 catches, which was the second most in the NFL, and allowed the most receiving yards to enemy WRs in the NFL in 2024.

2025 Outlook: The Vikings as a whole finished as the No. 2 fantasy defense last season, and they added defensive tackles Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave, and cornerback Isaiah Rodgers to their secondary, which could help boost their pass defensive production. Like Minnesota, the Lions were tough against the run, but the pass was their Achilles' heel. Edge-rusher Aidan Hutchinson will be back, and they added Tyleik Williams in the first round of this year's draft, along with free-agent cornerback D.J. Reed, so expect them to climb out of the basement, as well.

Since Chicago was the best defense against QBs in 2024, it's not too shocking to see them here atop the WR column. They quietly allowed the fewest WR receptions of any defensive unit last season, and only 13 TDs, which was the second-lowest in the NFL. The Titans were solid against the pass in 2024, allowing just 128 receiving yards to WRs per contest, the second fewest in the league, but they struggled against the run, yielding nearly the same on the ground per game (129 yards).

The Packers, Dolphins, and Jets were all among the top-8 defensive squads when it came to the least amount of receptions, yards, and touchdowns allowed to the WR position last year.

2025 Outlook: None of these five defenses may be here next season, but the Packers and Jets have top-10 potential in the fantasy space, with the rest tough to get a read on as we head into 2025.

Fantasy Points Allowed to Tight Ends

We saw the lowest year-to-year correlation points allowed to tight ends (.16), most likely because facing just a few dominant tight ends can really make a team appear worse against the position since there are so few big names in general.

Only 22% of defensive units that finished in the top five were there again the next season, with an average end ranking of DEF14. Of the five teams that were the worst at defending tight ends, 16% landed in the basement that next season, with an average finish of DEF19.

If you streamed tight ends at all last season, you knew that the Bengals were a sieve for fantasy points. They allowed the third-most yards and yielded 10 touchdowns to the tight end, plus they surrendered the most receptions to the position. The Raiders, Rams, and Colts were all ranked 25th or worse in all tight-end defensive categories, allowing an average of 12.4 half-PPR points to enemy TEs weekly.

2025 Outlook: Since the correlation is so insignificant here, there’s not much point in going over any potential turnover, but if faced with a difficult draft decision and one tight end is in the same division as one of these bottom units, they could edge out the other based on the history of FPA.

The Lions shut down the tight end above everyone last year, ending in the top 5 in all categories. Philadelphia, Tennessee, New York, and Arizona all fell within single-digit numbers when it came to defending receiving yards against TEs, with the Eagles tops in that category, along with top 10 in receptions and TDs for all four of those defensive units.

2025 Outlook: The Eagles and Lions are projected similarly for 2025, so treat them as you would for any other position you’re looking at during the draft. The trio of the Titans, Giants, and Cardinals is ranked in the lower third of the league, so adjust strategy accordingly. I know that tight end is unilaterally the least favorite position after defense and kicker, of course, but there is a nice young crop of players emerging, so give them the due diligence when it comes to research.

Bottom Line

We’re all searching for an edge in fantasy football, and using strength of schedule is something that can benefit your roster and bottom line at the end of the season. At 4for4, we created the metric schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed, or aFPA, which takes schedule bias out and rectifies the concerns over raw fantasy points allowed discussed above, leveling the playing field to compare matchups in an apples-to-apples manner.

After looking at a decade’s worth of data, we found that some positions had a stronger correlation than others when it comes to defensive points allowed from one season to the next.

• QB showed the strongest relationship, but it still wasn’t exactly sticky.
• Real defense doesn’t always translate to fantasy points.
• Check out 4for4’s hot spot tool for tough SOS decisions, keeping all of this in mind.