Week 9 NFL Odds: Lookahead Lines Report
Each week of the season, I'll provide a first glance at the upcoming NFL slate through the lens of lookahead lines. Lookahead lines offer a sneak peek at how bookmakers value teams before the start of the week, without the influence of the recency bias that comes after watching eight hours of football earlier in the day. It's also an opportunity to act before the games are posted and sharpened on Sunday evening- after the previous week's games are complete.
In my opinion, the only way to consistently put yourself in a position to gain positive expected value (+EV) while betting on NFL sides is to beat the closing line. This is easier said than done.
When I take a position on a lookahead line, I believe the current number will beat the closing line. It's an effort to get ahead of the market movement to land the best of the number. Basically, I'm parlaying my handicap. In essence, if I'm right in my Week 8 evaluation of the team and market, I will have an advantage in predicting where the line movement will come first in Week 9.
For reference, I'll use the initial odds released by Westgate back in April to show you how the game opened. Then, I'll note the consensus for each current Week 9 lookahead line at DraftKings, with the spread listed based on the home team.
| Game | Opening Line | Current Line | Opening Total | Current Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texans @ Jets | -3 | -1 | 45 | 43 |
| Cowboys @ Falcons | +1 | -2 | 48 | 48 |
| Dolphins @ Bills | -3 | -5.5 | 51 | 48 |
| Raiders @ Bengals | -7 | -8.5 | 45 | 45.5 |
| Chargers @ Browns | -3 | +3.5 | 43.5 | 39 |
| Patriots @ Titans | -2.5 | -3 | 41 | 39 |
| Colts @ Vikings | -1 | -7 | 46.5 | 46.5 |
| Commanders @ Giants | -1.5 | +3 | 42 | 44 |
| Saints @ Panthers | +1 | +4.5 | 40.5 | 46.5 |
| Broncos @ Ravens | -10.5 | -8.5 | 43 | 44 |
| Bears @ Cardinals | +1 | +1 | 46.5 | 45.5 |
| Lions @ Packers | -1.5 | -1 | 49 | 50 |
| Rams @ Seahawks | +1.5 | -3 | 47 | 47.5 |
| Jaguars @ Eagles | -3.5 | -6.5 | 47 | 47 |
| Buccaneers @ Chiefs | -7 | -8.5 | 47 | 44 |
Week 9 Lookahead Lines Takeaways
- I'm always on the hunt for scheduling and travel advantages. For the most part, these things are already baked into the number, but I believe there are instances each week that aren't accurately accounted for in the market.
- I'm including game totals this season and looking for any edge we can exploit. I prefer team totals over full-game totals, and while we don't have that information specifically, it can be derived from the spread and total, so we know the range to expect.
Bye Weeks: Steelers and 49ers
Week 9
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Texans @ Jets (-1)
The Jets are in primetime! Finally!
Are the Jets allowed to play in the early window on Sunday this season? Did I miss this permanent amendment to the schedule?
The Texans continue to play with their food on early downs. They rank 23rd in EPA per play on first and second down but fourth on third and fourth downs. This is similar to last season, and while I'd generally say it's unlikely to hold up, C.J. Stroud is obviously elevating his game even without Nico Collins in the lineup. It's Texans or nothing for me here, and I'll hop on the Texans as a teaser leg if this moves out to +1.5 or higher.
Cowboys @ Falcons (-2)
The Cowboys are a limited, one-dimensional offense right now. The dimension, CeeDee Lamb, is tremendous, but he's just not enough. Dallas continues to stall in and around the red zone, ranking 31st in red zone conversion rate, while their defense is the inverse here, ranking second in opponent red zone conversion rate. Get to the red zone against the Cowboys, and you're getting six. It's Atlanta or nothing for me at less than -3, as I think the Falcons would be able to run at will here.
Broncos @ Ravens (-8.5)
With the Broncos out to 10-point favorites against the Panthers in Week 8, it's wild to see them as nearly double-digit dogs the very next week. Apropos of nothing, this tells us that a Ravens and Panthers spread would likely be at least two touchdowns with Bryce Young under center. Yeesh.
The best path forward against this Ravens defense is chunk plays through the air, something that the Broncos have struggled with this season. Laying 8.5 points is aggressive if this Broncos defense is healthy, but the Ravens are an appealing teaser leg at this number.
Bears @ Cardinals (+1)
In my opinion, the Cardinals' defense is the worst unit in this game by a wide margin. Any team with a balanced attack can do whatever it wants against Arizona, which lacks a pass rush and above-average talent along the perimeter. I think the Bears are one of the best bets on the board here in Week 9.
Lions @ Packers (-1)
This was my preseason NFC Championship Game matchup, and after seven weeks, I think I'd make the same selection. I don't have a feel for the side, but I like the over here, sitting at 50, which is on the right side of a key number (51) if you lean this way. Give me points and an exciting back-and-forth matchup.
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This sheet from Dan Rivera tracks all my betting picks and those from the rest of the betting staff. Just click on the tab with my name on it for the results.
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