Week 6 NFL Player Props: Best Player Props to Bet from Ryan Noonan

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I spend a lot of time analyzing defensive performance, and the majority of my props land on that side of the ball. I'll also mix in some "traditional" offensive props, but expect to see more defense than offense from me this season. The power of our community moves these lines very quickly, so if you're waiting for tackle props to pop in here first, you'll be missing the best line and price on every play. After back-to-back disappointing weeks personally, I'm ready to get to Week 6.

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Week 6 NFL Player Prop Bets

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Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) Over 56.5 Rushing Yards (-115, DraftKings)

This line is surprisingly low, as Jahmyr Gibbs has cruised over this in each of the past three games (78, 83, and 84 yards). Heading into Detroit's Week 5 bye, head coach Dan Campbell spoke about how Gibbs is "about to take off," and he's "getting his legs back under him" after missing time in training camp with a hamstring injury.

There's no meaningful metric in Dallas's favor in this spot. They're among the bottom five in rushing success rate, EPA per rush, early down success rate, YBCO/att, you name it. Center Frank Ragnow is back for the Lions, so the best run-blocking offensive line in the league is fully intact.

It's the big flashing mismatch when handicapping this game, and I think the Lions wisely lean into it. We know DeMarcus Lawrence and Marshawn Kneeland are out, and it's looking like both Micah Parsons and Eric Kendricks will miss this one as well. I think Detroit is able to do whatever they want offensively, and Gibbs is a massive part of that. He's out-snapped David Montgomery in every game this season and has handled a larger rushing share in two of the past three games. I'd play this anywhere below 60 with no issue.

Risk: 1.15 units to win 1 unit

Darnell Mooney (ATL) Longest Reception Over 20.5 Yards (-108, FanDuel)

Mooney is an every-down player in the Falcons' 11 personnel-heavy offense. He has elite route participation at 97%, and he's now getting one of the worst pass defenses in the league. The Panthers are one of the worst teams in the league when it comes to generating pressure, and it looks like they'll be without their only decent pass rusher, Jadevon Clowney, in this spot. Clean pocket Kirk Cousins has been awesome this season.

With Drake London playing more in the slot, Mooney has thrived in a more vertical role. Outside of Week 1 against the Steelers, where Mooney had just one reception, he's caught at least three balls in each of the past four games, with a longest reception of 41, 26, 36, and 24 yards. Per Next Gen Stats, Mooney has been targeted 26 times on attempts of 10 or more air yards, tied for the third-most in the NFL. That's more than double the amount of times he's been targeted under 10 yards (12).

Risk: 1.08 units to win 1 unit

Breece Hall (NYJ) Over 3.5 Receptions (-115, DraftKings)

Breece Hall has really struggled to get anything going of late, and part of the problem is that he's not being utilized in the passing game as much. Hall's been asked to pass protect a lot more of late, failing to top a 60% route participation rate in each of the past two games, but I believe that's matchup-based. After totaling 13 pass-blocking snaps in the first three games, Hall has approached that number in each of the past two weeks. Against the Broncos, Hall stayed in to protect on 12 of 39 passing snaps. Last week against the Vikings, it was 11 of 44 snaps. I think it matters that Minnesota (41%) and Denver (40%) rank first and second in blitz rate this season.

The Jets' offensive line has struggled to protect, so Hall was used as an extension of the line more than usual. This week, the Jets face the Bills, who are middle of the pack in pressure rate but blitz at the lowest rate in the league at just 15%. They've also faced the most targets to running backs this season, giving up the most receptions and yards. I think we see Hall out in space more, and this is a great way to get him the ball.

Risk: 1.15 to win 1

Derwin James (LAC) Over 6.5 Tackles and Assists (-125, DraftKings)

Derwin James comes into Week 6 fresh after two weeks off. A Week 3 helmet-to-helmet hit cost him a Week 4 paycheck, and the Chargers had a Week 5 bye week. This is a great spot to come back to though, with the Broncos giving up a ton of production to opposing safeties this season. Bo Nix's short average depth of target, along with a high rate of targets in the flat to running backs, has resulted in an insanely high rate tackle rate for opposing safeties.

On the season, safety groups are averaging 13.47 tackles per game so far across the league. That's translating to 22.0% of all tackles coming from safeties. Safeties against the Broncos are averaging 18.8 tackles per game, and 32.08% of all of the tackles against Denver have come from opposing safeties. I have James projected for 8.1 in this spot.

Risk: 1.25 units to win 1 unit

Robert Spillane (LV) Over 9.5 Tackles and Assists (-130, Bet365)

It's tough to consistently produce 10+ tackles week after week in the NFL unless your name is Robert Spillane. The Raiders linebacker has 10 or more tackles in 10 of the Raiders' past 12 games, including all five games to start this season. One of the times he fell short of this mark was in Week 15 last season against the Chargers, where he left early and only played 60% of the snaps.

Among the top ten linebackers in tackles this season, only Fred Warner has a lower missed tackle rate than Spillane's 7.0%. For most of last season, Spillane's snap per tackle rate was north of 7.2, a fine rate for a starting middle linebacker but far from elite. So far in 2024, Spillane is at 5.89 snaps per tackle and has been around 6.1 during this recent 12-game stretch. This week, Spillane and the Raiders face the Steelers, who've given up the second-most tackle opportunities per game this season, both overall (67.2) and to linebackers (21.0).

This double-digit tackle run will stall out eventually, but it's unlikely to be this week. I have Spillane projected for 10.9, and would play this out to 10.5 +110

Risk: 1.3 units to win 1 unit

Maxx Crosby (LV) Over 4.5 Tackles and Assists (-115, DraftKings)

Maxx is fully healthy after dealing with an ankle injury for a few weeks. He comes into this game without an injury designation (he did have two sacks last week despite being questionable all week.) I think the Steelers have a sizeable time of possession edge in this spot, which is why I'm willing to add Crosby despite already playing Spillane. In a sense, they're not competing for the same tackles.

DEs don't pile up tackles typically, but 7 different DEs have topped this number this season. Opposing DEs are averaging 11 TAs per game against the Steelers, 2.89 per game more than the league average. I have Crosby projected for 5.33 on 95% of the snaps, but I think we see him back at 100%, pushing him closer to 5.5

Risk: 1.15 units to win 1 unit

Brian Branch (DET) Over 6.5 Tackles and Assists (-115, DraftKings)

Brian Branch has an ideal alignment for tackle production, and I like him in what could be a high-volume spot. Branch will likely play 70-80% of his snaps in the box, a mix of run support and slot coverage, likely vs CeeDee Lamb. I have Branch projected for 7.61 in this spot. I'd play this out to 7.5 +120, but if this moves quickly, I prefer o4.5 solos (+100) if you can find it.

Risk: 1.15 units to win 1 unit

I will continue to update this column throughout the week as I release more bets.

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