Week 15 NFL Odds: Lookahead Lines Report

Each week of the season, I'll provide a first glance at the upcoming NFL slate through the lens of lookahead lines. Lookahead lines offer a sneak peek at how bookmakers value teams before the start of the week, without the influence of the recency bias that comes after watching eight hours of football earlier in the day. It's also an opportunity to act before the games are posted and sharpened on Sunday evening- after the previous week's games are complete.

In my opinion, the only way to consistently put yourself in a position to gain positive expected value (+EV) while betting on NFL sides is to beat the closing line. This is easier said than done.

When I take a position on a lookahead line, I believe the current number will beat the closing line. It's an effort to get ahead of the market movement to land the best of the number. Basically, I'm parlaying my handicap. In essence, if I'm right in my Week 14 evaluation of the team and market, I will have an advantage in predicting where the line movement will come first in Week 15.

For reference, I'll use the initial odds released by Westgate back in April to show you how the game opened. Then, I'll note the consensus for each current Week 15 lookahead line at DraftKings, with the spread listed based on the home team.

Week 15 Lookahead Lines Takeaways

• I'm always on the hunt for scheduling and travel advantages. For the most part, these things are already baked into the number, but I believe there are instances each week that aren't accurately accounted for in the market.
• I'm including game totals this season and looking for any edge we can exploit. I prefer team totals over full-game totals, and while we don't have that information specifically, it can be derived from the spread and total, so we know the range to expect.

Bye Weeks: none

Week 15

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Rams @ 49ers (-3)

The Rams have won the last two meetings against the 49ers after it appeared that Kyle Shanahan and company had Sean McVay's number. The NFC West is still very much up for grabs right now, so these head-to-head matchups are especially important. Both of these clubs have dealt with cluster injuries this season, though the 49ers are still in that season, while the Rams are mostly on the other side of things. I like the 49ers here if Brock Purdy, Nick Bosa, and Trent Williams are active, so I'll wait until closer to kickoff before making a play.

Ravens @ Giants (+13)

It might feel like the Giants have already bottomed out, but I think there's a deeper and darker hole for them to slip into. With the Ravens stumbling into their Week 14 bye, I think they want to come out strong and make a statement heading into the home stretch. It's crazy to lay two scores on the road in the NFL, but I'll play the Ravens here as long as it's under 14.

Buccaneers @ Chargers (-3)

Both clubs are looking for a strong finishing stretch with the potential of a playoff birth very much in play. There are a few health question marks on both sides here, so there's no need to jump in early, but this will be one of the highest leverage spots on the Week 15 slate as it relates to the playoff race.

Colts @ Broncos (-3.5)

This is another high-leverage playoff matchup, but it's even more important since these two clubs are fighting for the same spot. The Broncos have an edge, with a two-game lead over the Colts, but Indianapolis has a soft schedule to finish, and a win in Denver would make things quite interesting. Both teams lose the potential of a rest advantage since both teams have a Week 14 bye.

Bills @ Lions (-2.5)

At books where the Super Bowl matchup is available, this matchup currently has the shortest odds on the board at +650. Outside of wanting to show out well against another one of the league's top teams, both clubs have a lot to play for in December. I think the Lions will have success running the football here, but the Lions are dealing with so many injury issues defensively that it's hard to think it won't bite them at some point. The total, now out to 51.5, is rich in today's NFL, but we rarely see these teams pushed, and if this game remains close, 51.5 might not be high enough.

Steelers @ Eagles (-4.5)

The Steelers enter Week 14 as your AFC North leaders with a big spot coming up against the Ravens in Week 16. I've been below market on Pittsburgh all season long, and while that continues to work out poorly for me, I'm fascinated to see how they navigate this final stretch of the season. The Eagles are a buzzsaw right now, and I like them here at less than 6.

Packers @ Seahawks (+3)

This is another spot that will impact the NFC playoff picture. With both teams set up as road underdogs in the division in Week 14, I think those results will reshape this number prior to next Sunday's kick. I like Seattle getting the 3, so I might take a small piece of that because I think this could dip below the 3 after Week 14's results.

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This sheet from Dan Rivera tracks all my betting picks and those from the rest of the betting staff. Just click on the tab with my name on it for the results.

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