Week 14 NFL Odds: Lookahead Lines Report
Each week of the season, I'll provide a first glance at the upcoming NFL slate through the lens of lookahead lines. Lookahead lines offer a sneak peek at how bookmakers value teams before the start of the week, without the influence of the recency bias that comes after watching eight hours of football earlier in the day. It's also an opportunity to act before the games are posted and sharpened on Sunday evening- after the previous week's games are complete.
In my opinion, the only way to consistently put yourself in a position to gain positive expected value (+EV) while betting on NFL sides is to beat the closing line. This is easier said than done.
When I take a position on a lookahead line, I believe the current number will beat the closing line. It's an effort to get ahead of the market movement to land the best of the number. Basically, I'm parlaying my handicap. In essence, if I'm right in my Week 13 evaluation of the team and market, I will have an advantage in predicting where the line movement will come first in Week 14.
For reference, I'll use the initial odds released by Westgate back in April to show you how the game opened. Then, I'll note the consensus for each current Week 14 lookahead line at DraftKings, with the spread listed based on the home team.
| Game | Current Line | Opening Line | Current Total | Opening Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Packers @ Lions | -5 | -2.5 | 51 | 48 |
| Browns @ Steelers | -6 | -1 | 40.5 | 43.5 |
| Panthers @ Eagles | -13 | -7.5 | 45.5 | 45 |
| Falcons @ Vikings | -5.5 | +1 | 46.5 | 45 |
| Raiders @ Buccaneers | -8 | -1.5 | 45.5 | 44 |
| Jaguars @ Titans | -2.5 | +2 | 43.5 | 45 |
| Saints @ Giants | +4 | +1 | 39.5 | 41 |
| Jets @ Dolphins | -6.5 | -2 | 44.5 | 47.5 |
| Seahawks @ Cardinals | -2 | -1 | 45.5 | 45.5 |
| Bears @ 49ers | -6.5 | -5.5 | 44.5 | 47.5 |
| Bills @ Rams | -3.5 | +1 | 49 | 48 |
| Chargers @ Chiefs | -4.5 | -6.5 | 44.5 | 44.5 |
| Bengals @ Cowboys | +5.5 | -1 | 45.5 | 48.5 |
Week 14 Lookahead Lines Takeaways
- Bye Weeks are back in a big way. It's the final bye week of the season, with six teams off in Week 14.
- I'm always on the hunt for scheduling and travel advantages. For the most part, these things are already baked into the number, but I believe there are instances each week that aren't accurately accounted for in the market.
- I'm including game totals this season and looking for any edge we can exploit. I prefer team totals over full-game totals, and while we don't have that information specifically, it can be derived from the spread and total, so we know the range to expect.
Bye Weeks: Ravens, Broncos, Texans, Colts, Patriots, Commanders
Week 14
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Packers @ Lions (-5)
With both the Lions and Packers playing on Thanksgiving, this is a normal rest spot on a Thursday night for these NFC North rivals. Despite being 10-1 heading into Week 13, the Packers (8-3) and Vikings (9-2) are still holding out hope for a division upset. The Lions won the Week 9 meeting 24-14 in Green Bay, and I have no interest in jumping in front of this Aloha Blue train right now.
Falcons @ Vikings (-5.5)
This line feels like a shrug from bookmakers. How the Falcons play in Week 13 could really shape this line. Before their Week 12 bye, they got curb-stomped in Denver 38-6. The Vikings also played with their food a bit in Chicago, and the results of their matchup against the Cardinals in Week 13 will impact the playoff picture in the NFC and this Week 14 spread.
Seahawks @ Cardinals (-2)
This is a quick turnaround after the teams just met in Seattle in Week 12, a 16-6 Seahawks win. Seattle is finding its footing defensively after dealing with injuries and roster turnover all season long. They've also got healthier on the offensive line, though the running game is still an afterthought in their weekly game plan. I remain bullish on Mike Macdonald and this Seattle team, and I'll happily take points on the road here against the Cardinals.
Jets @ Dolphins (-6.5)
This is the first meeting of the season for the Jets and Dolphins. With Miami sitting at 5-6 with a tough matchup with the Packers on deck on Thanksgiving night, they'll likely need to take care of the Jets both times if the playoffs are in their future.
Bills @ Rams (+3.5)
I've been down on the Rams all season relative to the market. Their young defensive line has really surprised me, and it looks like a legit unit that'll be the backbone of their team over the next couple of seasons. The challenge here is how it matches up against Josh Allen and the Bills' offensive line. Josh Allen's 10/1% pressure-to-sack rate is one of the lowest marks in the league, and he's taken just 13 sacks in 11 starts this season. No other quarterback has played 11 games and taken fewer than 16 sacks. I'll lay points with the Bills on the road.
Bengals @ Cowboys (+5.5)
Outside of two remaining games against the Steelers, one of which is in Week 13, the Bengals have a fairly light schedule on paper. Despite a 4-7 record, there's a path to a backdoor playoff appearance for Joe Burrow and company. But on paper eventually becomes on the field, and the burden will continue to fall on the offense given the poor play and injuries in the secondary.
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This sheet from Dan Rivera tracks all my betting picks and those from the rest of the betting staff. Just click on the tab with my name on it for the results.
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