Week 11 NFL Odds: Lookahead Lines Report
Each week of the season, I'll provide a first glance at the upcoming NFL slate through the lens of lookahead lines. Lookahead lines offer a sneak peek at how bookmakers value teams before the start of the week, without the influence of the recency bias that comes after watching eight hours of football earlier in the day. It's also an opportunity to act before the games are posted and sharpened on Sunday evening- after the previous week's games are complete.
In my opinion, the only way to consistently put yourself in a position to gain positive expected value (+EV) while betting on NFL sides is to beat the closing line. This is easier said than done.
When I take a position on a lookahead line, I believe the current number will beat the closing line. It's an effort to get ahead of the market movement to land the best of the number. Basically, I'm parlaying my handicap. In essence, if I'm right in my Week 10 evaluation of the team and market, I will have an advantage in predicting where the line movement will come first in Week 11.
For reference, I'll use the initial odds released by Westgate back in April to show you how the game opened. Then, I'll note the consensus for each current Week 11 lookahead line at DraftKings, with the spread listed based on the home team.
| Game | Opening Line | Current Line | Opening Total | Current Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commanders @ Eagles | -6 | -3 | 45.5 | 49 |
| Packers @ Bears | -1 | +2.5 | 44 | 44.5 |
| Jaguars @ Lions | -4 | -10 | 50 | 51 |
| Vikings @ Titans | +1 | +6 | 43.5 | 42 |
| Raiders @ Dolphins | -6 | -7 | 47 | 46 |
| Rams @ Patriots | +4 | +6 | 44.5 | 43.5 |
| Browns @ Saints | +2 | -2 | 42 | 42.5 |
| Ravens @ Steelers | +3 | +3 | 42 | 45 |
| Falcons @ Broncos | +3 | +1 | 44.5 | 43.5 |
| Seahawks @ 49ers | -9 | -7 | 47.5 | 49 |
| Colts @ Jets | -4 | -4.5 | 46 | 43 |
| Chiefs @ Bills | +1 | +1 | 49 | 47 |
| Bengals @ Chargers | +2 | -1.5 | 45 | 44 |
| Texans @ Cowboys | -3 | +6.5 | 49 | 43 |
Week 11 Lookahead Lines Takeaways
- I'm always on the hunt for scheduling and travel advantages. For the most part, these things are already baked into the number, but I believe there are instances each week that aren't accurately accounted for in the market.
- I'm including game totals this season and looking for any edge we can exploit. I prefer team totals over full-game totals, and while we don't have that information specifically, it can be derived from the spread and total, so we know the range to expect.
Bye Weeks: Cardinals, Panthers, Giants, Buccaneers
Week 11
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Commanders @ Eagles (-3)
After the Bengals and Ravens in Week 10, this is back-to-back solid games on Thursday night. With Dak Prescott's injury and the Giants being the Giants, this Commanders and Eagles matchup has playoff implications, even though we're still in Week 11. This is the first of two meetings, with a Week 16 matchup in D.C. pending, and both teams enter this one with two losses on the season. I believe the market is pricing this one properly for now.
Packers @ Bears (+2.5)
The Bears looked disjointed in Week 9 against the Cardinals, a team I expected them to have some success against. The injury report is working against the Bears on both sides of the ball, and I'd want to see how that clears up before making a play here. The playoffs are comfortably in play for both clubs, but that gets harder for Chicago if they can't get this one at home against division-rival Green Bay.
Jaguars @ Lions (-10)
Interesting to note that this was Lions -10 before the Trevor Lawrence injury news and has remained there. The market has responded to the news in the Week 10 market, but not here. Laying double-digits in the NFL is not something that I love to do, but this is clearly Lions or nothing for me, and there's a chance that -10 presents some sizable closing line value prior to this game kicking off.
Ravens @ Steelers (+3)
I want to find opportunities to fade the Steelers down the stretch, and this will be a line to monitor as the week progresses. At the current price, I'll likely sit out, but if this gets under the 3, I'll lay 2.5 with Baltimore here.
Chiefs @ Bills (+1)
These two have brought us some of the most exciting head-to-head meetings of the past five seasons, and that'll likely continue for as long as Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen are calling the shots. This feels like a coinflip, so taking points on the home team is a lean for me, but I'll likely stay on the sideline here and just enjoy it as a fan unless we see the market move it drastically, which seems unlikely.
Bengals @ Chargers (-1.5)
Though not a divisional matchup, this inter-conference meeting between the Bengals and Chargers could have a sizable impact on the back end of the AFC Playoff picture over the coming months. The path to winning the division is almost non-existent for both clubs, but the winner will have an important head-to-head advantage over the other, something that could definitely matter come December.
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This sheet from Dan Rivera tracks all my betting picks and those from the rest of the betting staff. Just click on the tab with my name on it for the results.
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