Week 10 NFL Player Props: Best Player Props to Bet from Ryan Noonan

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I spend a lot of time analyzing defensive performance, and the majority of my props land on that side of the ball. I'll also mix in some "traditional" offensive props, but expect to see more defense than offense from me this season. The power of our community moves these lines very quickly, so if you're waiting for tackle props to pop in here first, you'll be missing the best line and price on every play.

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Week 10 NFL Player Prop Bets

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Drake Maye (NE) Over 25.5 Rushing Yards (-114, FanDuel)

Drake Maye has only made four starts, but his 14 scramble attempts rank among the league leaders. Per Next Gen Stats, New England has allowed the highest pressure rate (43.0%) and the sixth-quickest time to pressure (2.52 seconds) in the NFL this season. Additionally, they have allowed the most quick pressures (81), along with being tied for the 2nd-most unblocked pressures (31). This creates a ton of pocket-breaking scramble opportunities, and Maye has shown a willingness to tuck and run, as he's coming off of an eight-scramble, 95-yard rushing day in Week 9 against the Titans.

While the Bears don't have an elite pass rush, they're 10th in pressure rate this season at 34.7%, and with Montez Sweat expected back, they'll likely flush Maye out enough for him to tuck and run four to five times.

Risk: 1.14 units to win 1 unit

Aaron Jones (MIN) Over 16.5 Rushing Attempts (+100, FanDuel)

Jacksonville ranks 27th in opponents plays per game at 64.7 and 31st in opponent time of possession (32:38 per game), and I struggle to see how they change that up here and sustain drives against the Vikings with Mac Jones under center. The backup role behind Aaron Jones has been a bit of a mess, but it's solidified Jones' role as the alpha back for the Vikings.

Since they moved to Jones as the clear RB1 back in Week 3, he's cleared this 16.5 carry mark comfortably in every healthy game (injured in the first half vs the Jets) other than the matchup against Detroit. He finished with 14 carries in that spot but dominated the backfield work, handing 88% of the carries. They just wisely skewed pass-heavy against the Lions. He's had 19 and 21 carries in the past two weeks, one of which was a neutral/trailing game script against the Rams. I think the Vikings win by margin here, and Jones is in for a heavy workload.

Risk: 1 unit to win 1 unit

Jack Campbell (DET) Over 7.5 Tackles and Assists (-110, DraftKings)

Last year's first-round pick has been an excellent per snap producer, but the Lions haven't fully let him go yet, using a maddening LB2 rotation alongside the very meh Alex Anzalone. But that appears to be changing. Campbell has played 95 and 92% of the snaps the past two weeks, and now the 3 other LBs who occasionally mix in are all out of the lineup this week, setting Campbell up for another massive workload.

At 95% of the snaps, I have Campbell projected for 8.8 TAs.

Risk: 1.1 unit to win 1 unit

Garrett Wilson (NYJ) Over 66.5 Receiving Yards (-114, FanDuel)

The Davante Adams acquisition has been good for Wilson for a few reasons. First, Wilson has been kicked outside more, which is good for this matchup since the Cardinals' only above-average talent at CB is Garrett Williams, who's primarily in the slot. Since Adams came to town, Wilson's YPRR is up nearly a full yard, and he's maintained an elite target per route run rate, seeing at least 8 targets in each of the past three games.

Aaron Rodgers leads the NFL in PFF's big-time throws (13) when he's been kept clean, something that should happen for most of the day against this benign Cardinals pass rush. Wilson has cruised over this lately, with 90 or more receiving yards in four of his past five games.

Risk: 1.14 units to win 1 unit

Cooper Kupp (LAR) Over 63.5 Receiving Yards (-114, FanDuel)

Miami has struggled against zone-beating slot WRs all season and has been forced to mix and match slot corners of late due to injuries. Jalen Ramsey is playing in the slot more of late, but he's much better out wide vs in the slot at this point. On a limited sample of snaps covering the slot, 8 of the 9 targets vs Ramsey have been caught. Kupp is coming off of an 11-catch, 14-target game against the Seahawks, and I think this Monday night game has a similar ceiling, where both offenses will need to stay on the gas.

Risk: 1.14 units to win 1 unit

I will continue to update this column throughout the week as I release more bets.

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