2023 Breakout Receiver Model: Week 8
The Breakout Receiver Model is back for Week 8 after another fantastic week of hits from last week's list of possible breakouts. We'll quickly review last week's numbers, then point the model forward and dive into this week, where we've identified a ton of value, especially at the tight end position. As always, we'll use the model to identify buy-low and sell-high candidates for season-long players. Then we'll look at top buy-low candidates playing on the main slate, attempting to locate players with a higher likelihood of hitting a ceiling performance than the public perceives.
About the Breakout Receiver Model
The 4for4 data science team, in conjunction with our award-winning projections expert John Paulsen, created the breakout model, which uses machine learning to identify under-performing wide receivers and tight ends on the verge of a breakout performance based on previous opportunity. The model utilizes historical usage data to determine the fantasy value of a player's past opportunity. The model's features include air yards and routes-run data, alongside several other features, as a means of determining opportunity. It also utilizes a proprietary efficiency metric that looks back at the past 10 weeks of individual player performance, all to better help predict the likelihood of a bounce-back in a player's future production. The model most heavily weights the last three weeks of data.
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