Championship Round NFL Vivid Picks Plays: Best Player Props

Jan 26, 2024
Championship Round NFL Vivid Picks Plays: Best Player Props

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Championship Round Vivid Picks Plays

Zay Flowers under 44.5 receiving yards

Flowers has multiple things working against him this week. Mark Andrews seems very likely to return this week after practicing in full last week and Harbaugh said this was his target week to return. On top of more competition, the Chiefs' secondary has been stellar this season, ranking top-5 in almost every pass-defense metric. They also play with two-high safeties or MOFO (middle of field open) at a league-high rate north of 63%.

Against two-high/MOFO with Mark Andrews (Weeks 2-10)

  • 16.3% Target Share
  • 0.16 Targets per route run

Even if Mark Andrews doesn't return, Flowers saw a 3% less target share against two-high/MOFO coverages in gams Andrews didn't play in.

The more I handicap this game, the more I expect the Chiefs to absolutely load the box, play a ton of Cover-0 or Cover 2, force tough completions, pressure Lamar, and try to stop the run. That's obviously much easier said than done (especially on the running part) but I would expect that to be their game plan which will make things even tougher for Flowers on a play-to-play basis. If they don't do that, the Ravens will just run all over the Chiefs and won't have to throw the ball very much.

Jared Goff under 260.5 passing yards

I would play this to the 255.5 at FD. The roar has been restored, but there are some massive warning signs for Goff in this game, especially from a pure yardage standpoint. First off, I fully expect the Lions to go run-heavy here. The 49ers struggled at times against the Packers' running game last week and are just 27th in rushing success rate allowed and 28th in EPA. Meanwhile, they are top 10 in both metrics vs the pass.

We have seen the Lions scheme their game plan to the opponent's weaknesses like we we did last week with a pass-heavy approach vs TB's pass-funnel defense.

When the Lions do pass, the 49ers match up really well against the Lions. They blitz at one of the lowest rates in the league and get pressure at one of the highest rates, upwards of 40% since Chase Young was acquired (H/T Daigle). Goff has been below average under pressure, but especially when teams get pressure without blitzing, which is what the 49ers D has been built on for literally years. Among the 39 QBs who have been pressured without a blitz (50+ dropbacks), Goff ranks 8th worst in completion rate at 45.2%, 14th worst in YPA, and a -11% CPOE, the 5th worst. With the Lions potentially missing multiple starting linemen, Goff could find himself under pressure even more here.

Goff's specific strength is throwing over the middle of the field. The issue is, the Niners the Niners are #1 in DVOA at defending the middle of the field. On throws from 10-19 yards, Goff has been specifically good. The Niners are top-3 in completion rate, and YPA allowed against those throws.

Even if the Niners present a massive negative game script for the Lions, Goff's life is going to be made very, very difficult.

Lamar Jackson over 66.5 rushing yards

Lamar has gone over this number in 4-of-5 career playoff games and now gets a great matchup. The Chiefs are allowing over 5 yards per carry out of the shotgun, and Lamar Jackson accounts for 1/3 of the Ravens' 2nd-most runs out of shotgun (343). He tends to run even more in the playoffs, but given his aggressiveness last week in getting upfield quickly instead of trying to avoid contact, this prop could go over quickly.

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