Week 3 NFL Odds: Lookahead Lines Report
The only way to consistently put yourself in a position to gain positive expected value (+EV) while betting on NFL sides is to beat the closing line. Sportsbooks gradually increase the limits they let bettors get down as the week progresses, indicating that the book feels they've priced the game correctly. So unless you're waiting later in the week because you're betting five to six figures on a side, you're +EV increases if you can get down on a number before it's sharpened by the whales.
Each week of the season, I'll provide a first glance at the upcoming NFL slate through the lens of lookahead lines. This brief lookahead window offers a sneak peek at how teams are valued by bookmakers before the start of the week. It's also an opportunity to act before the games are posted and sharpened on Sunday evening- after the previous week's games are complete. These lines are a true indicator of how bookmakers value each team, without the influence of the recency bias that comes after watching eight hours of football earlier in the day. Depending on the bookmaker, and bettor for that matter, you may or may not be able to get the type of action down that you'd like, depending on your unit sizing. The key is understanding where the value is on the board in any given week, and that is easier to do once you know what the opening number is. The limits are lower in this lookahead window, but that's not a problem for about 95% of you reading.
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When I take a position on a lookahead line, I believe the current number will beat the closing line. It's an effort to get ahead of the market movement to land the best of the number, which is ideal. Basically, I'm parlaying my handicap. In essence, if I'm right in my Week 2 evaluation of the team and market, I will have an advantage in predicting where the line movement will come first in Week 3.
For reference, I'll use the initial odds released by Westgate back in May to show you how the game opened. Then, I'll note each current Week 3 lookahead line at FanDuel, with the spread listed based on the home team:
| GAME | CURRENT LINE (9/14) | PRESEASON OPENING LINE |
|---|---|---|
| Giants @ 49ers | -9.5 | -4.5 |
| Texans @ Jaguars | -7.5 | -7 |
| Colts @ Ravens | -8.5 | -7 |
| Falcons @ Lions | -5.5 | -5 |
| Saints @ Packers | -2.5 | -1 |
| Titans @ Browns | -4.5 | -4.5 |
| Broncos @ Dolphins | -5.5 | -3.5 |
| Chargers @ Vikings | +2 | +1.5 |
| Patriots @ Jets | +2 | -3.5 |
| Bills @ Commanders | +6 | +4.5 |
| Panthers @ Seahawks | -4.5 | -4 |
| Bears @ Chiefs | -11.5 | -9.5 |
| Cowboys @ Cardinals | +10.5 | +6.5 |
| Steelers @ Raiders | -1.5 | -1.5 |
| Eagles @ Buccaneers | +6.5 | +6 |
| Rams @ Bengals | -7.5 | -7 |
Week 3 Lookahead Lines Takeaways
- It matters less in Week 3, but I'm always on the hunt for scheduling and travel advantages. For the most part, these things are already baked into the number, but I believe there are instances each week that aren't accurately accounted for in the market.
Giants @ 49ers (-9.5)
This line was San Francisco -4.5 at open and then -6 prior to Week 1. This is a pretty significant reaction to Sunday's game.
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Texans @ Jaguars (-7.5)
The Jaguars got a crucial half-point bump after Week 1, moving this line from -7 to -7.5. I know it didn't look good on the scoreboard, but I was impressed with some of the things I saw from the Texans on both sides of the ball, especially considering both sides of the ball were less than full strength. I think the Week 2 results will make a massive impact here, but I'll have interest in the Texans at more than 7.
Titans @ Browns (-4.5)
The Browns will need a strong outing from Deshawn Watson here since the Browns' running attack will likely be slowed a bit by the Titans' stout run defense. The Browns pass rush should have their way with this Titans offensive line. At 4.5, there's no need to rush in, but it's a line I'm looking for on Sunday night.
Broncos @ Dolphins (-5.5)
In my AFC West preview, I mentioned my concerns about the Broncos pass rush, and it played out immediately in Week 1. They failed to get a single pressure on Jimmy Garoppolo and the Raiders last week outside of a blitz, and if Tua Tagovailoa has time to operate, he'll cook, even against Denver's elite secondary. Facing his former team, Miami defensive coordinator Vic Fangio will force Russell Wilson to beat him with high volume and efficiency, and that's not a side I want to be on.
Patriots @ Jets (+2)
This line has moved from Jets -3.5 to Jets +2 after the Aaron Rodgers injury. The new starter, same as the old starter, Zach Wilson, failed to top 50% completion percentage in both starts versus the Patriots last year, including a riveting 9/22 performance for 77 yards in Week 11. This is a rock fight, with a lowly 38-point total, but I was encouraged by what we saw from New England in spurts in Week 1. If Wilson shows a pulse in Dallas, this will move closer to a pick'em.
Panthers @ Seahawks (-4.5)
A Week 1 dud and a pair of offensive line injuries have the public off of the Seahawks. This is a tough spot for the Panthers, traveling to Seattle on a short week after playing on Monday night in Week 2, but their pass rush could give Geno Smith fits in this one. Tackles Charles Cross and Abe Lucas each had a perfect pass block win rate before exiting in Week 1, and things fell apart quickly after they departed.
Cowboys @ Cardinals (+10.5)
The Cowboys' dominant Week 1 showing moved this line from 6.5 to 10.5. Four points is a huge move, but it's also through two key numbers (7 and 10). Kudos to those who took advantage of the 6.5's, but I'm not sure the 10.5 is big enough to scare me away.
Eagles @ Buccaneers (+6.5)
Baker Mayfield has always struggled against pressure, with one of the league's highest pressure-to-sack rates in the league since being drafted. That makes this a toxic matchup for the Buccaneers, given their depth and inexperience along the offensive line. The Bucs have a shot to win at home against the Bears in Week 2, so I'm not rushing to grab this 6.5 because it might be down to 5.5 or 6 if Tampa Bay shows up against Chicago.
