Wild Card Monday Single-Game NFL DFS: Steelers and Bills Top FanDuel & DraftKings Plays
Welcome to the Wild Card showdown snapshot for the Steelers and Bills, arguably the most lopsided Wild Card matchup in recent memory. The game's been moved due to weather, and the total's been on the rise, but the outcome for this game is not in doubt. The Steelers stumbled backward into a 10-7 record, finishing third in the AFC North, but face a formidable challenge against the red-hot Bills, arguably the best team in the AFC down the stretch.
Pittsburgh has been a mixed bag all season, finishing the year a middling 6-5. At the very least, they have flashed explosive offensive potential with Mason Rudolph at the helm, slightly elevating their expectations. Contrastingly, Buffalo’s been unstoppable of late, not losing a single game since their narrow Thanksgiving weekend defeat against Philadelphia. Their late-season surge, culminated in snatching the AFC East title from Miami in a decisive Week 18 victory to close out the season. They’ll face a Steelers defense that will be without star pass-rusher T.J. Watt, who is out due to a knee injury, which severely weakens their defensive front (even if safety Minkah Fitzpatrick can return). Let’s dig into the key plays and top strategies for this single-game slate.
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Game Environment
This chart represents the general offensive strategies for each team when the game outcome is still in question (win probability between 20% and 80%). The final two minutes of each half are also excluded. We’ll include last year’s statistics through Week 4 of the regular season. Teams in the upper-right quadrant pass more often and play faster than the average NFL team in neutral game scripts, and conversely, teams in the lower-left quadrant play slower and run more often than the average NFL team.
Steelers (13.75) @ Bills (23.75); Over/Under 37.5
Quarterback Analysis
While there may be 22 people on the field for every play, each play and game is heavily dictated by the performance of each team’s quarterback. While efficiency isn’t everything for quarterbacks, it is the best indicator of future performance, so we use a trio of metrics to suss out top performers at the position compared to lackluster ones. xDrive Success %, or True Drive Success Rate, is a measurement of a QB’s ability to turn drives into scores weighted by sample size. EPA or Expected Points Added, is a measurement of the QB’s contribution, both running and throwing, to the team’s scoring and production vs. the average NFL team. Completion % over Expected (CPOE)represents the accuracy and efficiency of a QB’s passes compared to league expectations.
Core Plays and Auxiliary Options
- DFS & Season-Long Content
- Lineup Generator
- Optimal Cash & GPP Lineups
- Floor & Ceiling Projections
- -Leverage Scores
- -...and much much more!
