Week 16 Saturday Single-Game NFL DFS: Bengals and Steelers Top FanDuel & DraftKings Plays

Dec 21, 2023

Saturday Single-Game DFS: Bengals at Steelers

Corey Perrine-USA TODAY Sports

Welcome to the Showdown snapshot for a special Saturday football clash between the Bengals and Steelers. This classic AFC North battle features two teams down to backup quarterbacks, but each has legitimate chances at a playoff birth. The Bengals, at 8-6 after a thrilling overtime win against the VIkings, hold the sixth seed in the AFC playoff race, while the Steelers are just one game back and sit behind only the Bills and Colts for the hotly contested final Wild Card spot in the AFC. The Steelers will move to their third quarterback of the season, veteran Mason Rudolph, who replaces Mitchell Trubisky after poor play over the last two weeks. Understandably, with a game total of 38, we're not expecting a ton of scoring, but this should be an exciting matchup nonetheless. Let's dig into the key plays and strategies for this single-game slate.

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Game Environment

Bengals (20) @ Steelers (18); Over/Under 38

_{^{This chart represents the general offensive strategies for each team when the game outcome is still in question (win probability between 20% and 80%). The final two minutes of each half are also excluded. We’ll include last year’s statistics through Week 4 of the regular season. Teams in the upper-right quadrant pass more often and play faster than the average NFL team in neutral game scripts, and conversely, teams in the lower-left quadrant play slower and run more often than the average NFL team.}}

Quarterback Analysis

_{^{While there may be 22 people on the field for every play, each play and game is heavily dictated by the performance of each team’s quarterback. While efficiency isn’t everything for quarterbacks, it is the best indicator of future performance, so we use a trio of metrics to suss out top performers at the position compared to lackluster ones. xDrive Success %, or True Drive Success Rate, is a measurement of a QB’s ability to turn drives into scores weighted by sample size. EPA or Expected Points Added, is a measurement of the QB’s contribution, both running and throwing, to the team’s scoring and production vs. the average NFL team. Completion % over Expected (CPOE)represents the accuracy and efficiency of a QB’s passes compared to league expectations.}}