Week 15 NFL Player Props: Best Player Props to Bet from Ryan Noonan

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Between the weekly discussions on Move The Line and my weekly Lookahead Lines article, I'm constantly railing on our ability, or inability, to consistently beat a market as liquid as NFL sides. But player props? Player props are an entirely different story.

There are similarities that prop betting has with traditional markets, like sides and totals. First, the best way to consistently put yourself in a position to realize positive expected value (+EV) long-term is to beat the closing line number. Secondly, this is more difficult with sides than props, but you need better numbers than the market. With props, that means having the best projections. Projections that give you an edge against the field. Well, this is 4for4. We have the best projections, full stop.

If you're waiting for this article to get some of my favorite tackle and assist bets of the week, you really need to get into the subscriber Discord. Even more than standard offensive props, these markets move quickly. It's highly unlikely that the price and/or line has stayed the same.

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Week 15 NFL Player Prop Bets

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DeForest Buckner (IND) Over 4.5 Tackles + assists (+108, Caesars)

Teams skew run-heavy against the Colts, with only the Jets having a lower pass rate over expected (PROE) and more raw rushing attempts (418 vs 411) against them on the season. It's also no surprise that the new Steelers play-calling tandem is leaning heavily on the ground game with Mitch Trubisky under center. Over the past month, the Steelers are 31st PROE, failing to top 50% in MVP-Mitch's two starts (35% and 47%).

On the season, 17.5% of the tackles against Pittsburgh have come from the interior defensive line, the second-highest rate in the league and 3% above average. Now they face Buckner, one of only three interior defensive linemen with more than 60 tackles on the season, who's had at least 6 tackles and assists (TAs) in four straight games (8, 6, 6, and 8).

With Buckner playing in the middle of it all, assists help, and the Colts' scorekeeper has been one of the best for years now and is handing out assists at the seventh-highest rate in the league.

Risk: 1 unit to win 1.08 units on Caesars

T.J. Edwards (CHI) Over 8.5 Tackles + assists (+110, DraftKings)

At least one linebacker has ten or more TAs in five straight games versus Cleveland, and a linebacker has topped this number against them in 11 of 13 games this season (13 linebackers overall).

T.J. Edwards has topped this line in 10 of 14 games, yet we're getting this at +money. That's enough of a handicap for this bet. I have Edwards' baseline tackle projection at 10.3, plus he gets positive boosts for play environment and scorekeeper, and no team gives up more tackles per game to linebackers than the Browns.

Risk: 1 unit to win 1 unit on DraftKings

Rayshawn Jenkins (JAX) Over 5.5 Tackles + assists (+110, DraftKings)

We've seen a massive shift in how Rayshawn Jenkins is used, and it's been outstanding for his tackle production. Early this season, he was in the box for roughly 20-30% of the snaps in a given week, but that's shifted. His box snap rate over the past four weeks is 72%, 58%, 61%, 57%.

He's topped this mark in three straight games and every game he's played this season against a team with an above-average tackles-against rate. Baltimore is one of the best spots for safety tackle production because they run a lot and throw over the middle at the second-highest rate in the league. 25.36% of the tackles against Baltimore have come from safeties, which is the third-highest rate in the league. Five safeties have six or more tackles in the past three weeks against the Ravens.

The Jaguars scorekeeper is handing out assists at the league's fifth-highest rate, with a lean toward the home team (9.5% above average). I have Jenkins projected for 6.68 here and would play this to -120.

Risk: 1 unit to win 1.1 units on DraftKings

I will continue to update this column throughout the week as I release more bets, but in the meantime, make sure you're in our Discord!

For the most up-to-date picks, check out my Twitter, and subscribe to our Discord. This sheet, from Dan Rivera, tracks all my betting picks (and those from the rest of the betting staff). Just click on the tab with my name on it for the results.