Week 13 NFL Vivid Picks Plays: Best Player Props
All of our Thanksgiving vivid picks plays hit! We smashed a four-leg play for 10x our money that consisted of Dak Prescott’s passing yards over 278.5, Terry McLaurin under 5 receptions, Jahmyr Gibbs over 47.5 rushing yards, and AJ Dillon under 49.5 rushing yards. With a nice 10x hit in the bank, this is the second time in the last five weeks all of our plays from this article have hit.
This week, Vivid Picks is not only allowing us to run it back but is boosting this week’s 4-leg play to 13x!
For those who are new, Vivid Picks is a simple fantasy sports game where you pick multiple players to go over or under their assigned line.
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Each week, I’ll be posting a free article with a few of my favorite plays of the week, some reasons why, and what I would play each leg to. If you enjoy my reasoning and want 15+ official plays each week, snag yourself a betting subscription for as low as $5! Also, join our FREE Vivid Picks Discord.
If you like my plays below, Vivid is offering a FREE boost! All you have to do is sign up using our code (4for4sub), click on “NFL,” click on the special boost pinned to the top, and your play will be boosted after you submit it! This week's is 13x using these three plays!
Week 13 Vivid Picks Plays
Bijan Robinson over 80.5 rushing and receiving yards
Since Jets DT Al Woods tore his Achilles in Week 8, the Jets run defense has allowed 4.11 yards per carry to running backs and a running back to clear 80+ rushing & receiving yards in 4-of-5 games. The only miss was against the Chargers putrid running game. The Falcons are incredibly dedicated to the running game, leading the league in run rate over expectation. The reason I prefer rushing and receiving instead of just rushing is that they made a concerted effort to get him the ball in the passing game out of the bye, as he saw 6 targets on just 21 pass attempts for Ridder. He had a 43% target per route run rate, and we know the Jets essentially only concede passing yards over the middle and underneath. They allow the 5th most targets to opposing running backs and 7th most yards. Allgeier is a zero in the passing game, basically so Bijan should see 4-5 targets even on limited passing volume. Bijan has seen 22 and 24 opportunities (carries + targets) in the past two games after Arthur Smith mentioned he wanted to get Bijan the ball more. I would consider playing alts here as well.
Brandon Aiyuk over 61.5 receiving yards
This is an absolute smash spot for Aiyuk. The Eagles' secondary has routinely been whipped by outside wideouts where Aiyuk lines up the majority of the time, allowing the third-most receptions per game to outside wideouts (9.6). The Eagles have allowed 15 wideouts to clear 61 receiving yards already this season and 7 to clear 90 yards! They are 30th in explosive pass rate allowed and play a good bit of man defense. Rich Hribar pulled a great note:
"Philadelphia is playing man coverage 32.0% of passing snaps, seventh in the league.
Against man coverage, Aiyuk has been targeted on a team-high 29.9% of his routes while averaging 4.16 yards per route run!"
There is truly nuclear potential here for Aiyuk, especially if we get a bit more passing volume than the 49ers normally get. I thought this would drop in the high-60's so getting 61 is really strong.
Drake London under 45.5 receiving yards
This is a tough matchup for London and the Falcons passing game here while the running game should have it pretty easy. As I laid out with Bijan’s prop, the Jets are a massive run-funnel defense and the Falcons have no problem running the ball as much as possible. When they do throw, London should see plenty of Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed, a premier cornerback duo that locks down the outside of the field.
Jordan Love under 227.5 passing yards
Jordan Love has played two incredible games, but that has come against the Lions and Chargers. We have seen him be more aggressive at pushing the ball down field, but now he runs into a much tougher task against the Chiefs secondary. They are 4th in pass EPA per play and 5th in explosive pass rate allowed.
If you like my plays, Vivid is offering a FREE boost on them! All you have to do is sign up using our code (4for4sub), click on “NFL,” click on the special boost pinned to the top, and your play will be boosted after you submit it! This week's is 13x using these three plays!