Week 5 NFL Player Props: Best Player Props to Bet From Ryan Noonan

I'm off to a frustratingly slow start, but I believe in my process, which has been profitable at season's end for five straight years. Of course, week-to-week snapshots can be volatile in sports betting, but if you're not looking at it over a larger season-long sample but reacting to small sample ups and downs every game you're going to give yourself an aneurism.

You're probably tired of hearing me talk about it over the years. Between the weekly discussions on Move The Line and my weekly Lookahead Lines article, I'm constantly railing on our ability, or inability, to consistently beat a market as liquid as NFL sides. But player props? Player props are an entirely different story.

Without polling all of our betting subscribers, I'm fairly confident most of you also play some form of fantasy football. And if you're here, it's unlikely you're a casual player. Instead, you put in the necessary time and effort required to win money or humiliate your friends, ideally both. I'm the same way. I'm constantly thinking about game environments and player usage, and these thoughts correlate so well with the prop market.

There are similarities that prop betting has with traditional markets, like sides and totals. First, the best way to consistently put yourself in a position to realize positive expected value (+EV) long-term is to beat the closing line number. Secondly, this is more difficult with sides than props, but you need better numbers than the market. With props, that means having the best projections. Projections that give you an edge against the field. Well, this is 4for4. We have the best projections, full stop.

I'm not here to promise you a list of winners every week like some old-school 800-number tout, but I have a pretty solid track record of forecasting player performance. I believe our team's process is sound and that we can exploit this market every week of the season.

All of our plays are released through our subscriber Discord. Go to #Role-Assign and turn on "NFL Prop Star" to receive push notifications whenever a play is released by the 4for4 team. Beyond picks, our betting subscription includes tools that can't be found anywhere else. You can find out more details about everything a betting subscription comes with here. Also, see who Connor Allen likes in the prop market this week.

Week 5 NFL Player Prop Bets

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CeeDee Lamb Over 63.5 Receiving Yards (-115, BetMGM)

It looks like we get at least one more week of Cooper Rush for the Cowboys, but that's no reason to shy away from CeeDee Lamb here. The Rams have allowed the most yards per game to No. 1 WRs on the year at 115.7 (10.7/targets). So far this season, the Rams rank 25th in Football Outsiders' pass defense DVOA metric and 30th against their opponent's top option. The perception that all-world cornerback Jalen Ramsey will shadow and shut down Lamb makes sense, but the numbers don't back it up. Ramsey has rarely shadowed a single receiver this season, due in large part to the Rams' zone-heavy scheme.

Lamb has seen target shares of 34%, 43%, and 32% in the past three weeks with Cooper Rush under center. Our projections have Lamb going for 6.5 catches and 80.1 yards in this matchup.

Risk: 1.15 units to win 1 unit on BetMGM.

Baker Mayfield Under 194.5 Passing Yards (-125, BetMGM)

At the time Connor Allen and I posted this play, the line was 191.5, with the under juiced to -142, but I'd still play this under down to 190.5 at -115.

Baker Mayfield's struggles are legit, and this 49ers defense is not a spot to 'get right.' They should give him fits in this one. San Francisco ranks first in success rate in both man and zone coverage. According to Sports Info Solutions' Points Above Average metric, Mayfield is the league's worst quarterback against zone defenses (-0.141 PAA Per Play), the significantly more common look across the league, and 28th out of 31 quarterbacks (-0.229) against man coverage. There's no escaping this impending doom.

Risk: 1.25 units to win 1 unit on BetMGM.

Courtland Sutton Over 4.5 Receptions (-130, DraftKings)

Only Davante Adams has seen more targets while facing zone defense than Courtland Sutton has so far this season. That's noteworthy in Thursday night's matchup against the Colts since Indianapolis is playing zone at the sixth-highest rate in the league. But, even more importantly, they haven't been particularly good in zone looks, ranking 30th in success rate allowed.

Sutton has a 28% target share on the year despite a quiet Week 1 against Seattle. The Colts are a pass funnel target right now, ranking 27th in defensive DVOA against the pass, but they are stout against the run, ranking second through four weeks. Football Outsiders also grades them as the worst team in the league at stopping No. 1 WRs, a role Sutton has undoubtedly carved out for himself in this Broncos offense.

He's topped 4.5 receptions in three straight contests, and our projections have him at six. This is a little juicy, but I wouldn't be surprised if this climbs out to 5.5 before kick-off.

Risk: 1.3 units to win 1 unit on DraftKings.

I will update this column throughout the week with more bets.

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