Fantasy Football Positional Breakout Model: Week 14

Dec 07, 2022

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This offseason at 4for4, I developed a new expected fantasy points model (using PPR scoring) in an attempt to contextualize a player's usage in each game. If you're unfamiliar with expected fantasy points, it is a look back at what we would have expected a player to score based on how they were used and targeted in their offenses. For example, a carry at the two-yard line is going to be worth much more than a carry outside the red zone, and expected fantasy points captures that.

I primarily use this to measure a player's usage - not only how much they are being used but also the value of the usage they are getting. Throughout this article, I'll be using a combination of the aforementioned expected fantasy points model as well as other stats that may explain why a player is over- or under-performing to identify potential buy and sell candidates.

The charts below show each team's top running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends. On the x-axis is the player's expected (PPR) fantasy points per game and on the y-axis is the player's actual PPR fantasy point per game. Players that are to the bottom-right portion of their team's grid (or below the dotted line) are getting a solid workload but are failing to produce and could be seen as buy-low targets. Conversely, players that are in the top-left portion of their team's grid (or above the dotted line) have not been given a strong workload, but are over-producing that usage and could be seen as sell-high candidates.

For a full breakdown of all the players that over- and under-performed, you can see the expected fantasy points in our NFL Player Stat Explorer under the "Snaps & Fantasy" tab. With that, let's get to some players!