NBA Player Prop Bets: Vucevic Doesn't Fear the Deer

The NBA action is heating up as we enter the final two weeks of the season. Tonight we use a microscope to identify three player prop values on a minuscule four-game slate.

First, we focus on two players in the Chicago-Milwaukee battle. Can Jrue Holiday post another high-scoring game against the Bulls after a huge fourth quarter in Chicago earlier this month? Or is his prop too high even in a critical late-season home matchup? For Chicago, we explain why Nikola Vucevic's Points + Rebounds + Assists (PRA) prop could actually be a strong value until starting lineups are announced in just a few hours. Finally, we detail why we are fading RJ Barrett even in a juicy home game without Julius Randle against Atlanta.

Our NBA Player Prop Tool and NBA Prop Stat Explorer Tool are critical resources to help identify key spots for betting advantages. Of course, monitor our Discord activity for key last-minute updates. Let's dive into three props for tonight.

*Lines accurate at the time of publication.

DraftKings Player Prop Bets (March 22nd, 2022)

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Jrue Holiday (MIL) Under 30.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-110)

I've tracked Jrue Holiday in these spots throughout the season, and this is a good time to back his under. Holiday is averaging 29.6 PRA on the season, and 29.0 PRA in two games against Chicago. In 30 home games this season, he is only at 29.1 PRA per game. In every situation, Holiday falls short of this number.

Holiday is at 30.6 PRA in the month of March, but that was boosted by five games of 21+ points. In the last matchup at Chicago, Holiday tallied 26 points in Milwaukee's 118-114 road win. In that game, Holiday exploded for 16 fourth-quarter points, which is certainly an outlier. In their prior matchup, Holiday only produced 13 points. He has been under this number in five of the last six games, and I'm am fading him even in a good statistical matchup against Chicago. The Bulls are holding opponents to the fourth-fewest points per game over the last two weeks, leading to a lower-scoring battle with Holiday falling below this prop.

Risk: 1.10 units on DraftKings to win 1 unit. (Playable to -120)

RJ Barrett (NYK) Under 38.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-115)

This number is set very high as a result of the news Julius Randle will miss this game with a sore right quad. Even with RJ Barrett receiving extra usage, I'm still taking the under on this PRA prop.

In two games without Randle this season, Barrett is averaging 22.5 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 3.0 assists, substantially below this total. In the month of March, Barrett is averaging 24.1 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 4.1 assists, only totaling 34.2 PRA on average. He has failed to beat this number in five of the last six games and he has only averaged 23.4 PRA in three games against Atlanta.

The Hawks are allowing the 10th-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing shooting guards over the past seven games, which includes an average of just 30.6 PRA during that time. I expect Barrett to see a lot of De'Andre Hunter and the majority of Atlanta defensive attention with Randle sidelined.

Atlanta is not a great defensive team, but he has won four of their last six games and would love home-court advantage in the No. 9 vs. No. 10 playoff game.

I'm taking Barrett's under on this PRA prop, even with Randle not available.

Risk: 1.15 on DraftKings to win 1 unit. (Playable to -120)

BetMGM Player Prop Bets (March 22nd, 2022)

Nikola Vucevic (CHI) Over 31.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-115)

I grabbed this number at 30.5 PRA early today and still like it at 31.5 at BetMGM. Thie season, Nikola Vucevic is averaging 18.1 points, 11.4 rebounds, and 3.3 assists, which is over this total. In two games against Milwaukee, he is averaging 19 points, 10 rebounds, and 2.5 assists—right at this number. In road games this season, Vucevic is averaging 17.8 points, 10.8 rebounds, and 3.4 assists, which also exceeds this number. We also have the news Zach LaVine is questionable (injury management) on the second night of a back-to-back. In 13 games without LaVine this year, Vucevic has crushed this number, averaging 21.8 points, 11.5 rebounds, and 3.2 assists.

Milwaukee can be attacked by opposing centers, especially against big men who can shoot. Both Karl-Anthony Towns and Rudy Gobert beat this prop against the Bucks within the last three games, both tallying double-doubles. The return of Bucks center Brook Lopez also gives another advantage to quality interior post players.

I'm taking the over on Vucevic against Milwaukee, on a number he has consistently reached or exceeded this year. If LaVine is ruled out, we are getting a couple of points of value on this line.

Risk: 1.15 Units on BetMGM to win 1 unit. (Playable to -120)

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