NBA Player Prop Bets: Draymond Silences the Thunder

Jan 30, 2023
NBA Player Prop Bets (January 30, 2023)

We have an eight-game slate tonight with many teams that could be busy at the trade deadline in action. Be aware of players or teams potentially involved in trade rumors. why? It could change the math on if a team sits a player on a questionable tag if he could be moved or change rotations slightly to showcase someone a team would like to move.

Check out all the tools 4for4 has to aid in your daily prep. The Player Prop Tool will show projected value on listed props and you can customize the search to your liking, the Stat Explorer shows a specific stat for a player and how it compares to that night’s line and even allows you to customize the time frame you are looking at, and the Player Prop Finder shows what the line is at for all of a player’s props at all the primary books. Do not forget the Player Prop Odds Table and Player Splits Tool as well and make sure to get involved in Discord, where staff and subscribers talk through their favorite plays. Let’s make it a profitable start to the week.

Today’s NBA Player Prop Bets (January 30, 2023)

Draymond Green Over 15.5 Rebounds + Assists (-103 at Caesars)

When the Warriors are healthy and Draymond Green gets to start at center, as head coach Steve Kerr has said he wants to do for the rest of the season, this number requires further examination.

Andrew Wiggins is no longer on the injury report and the Warriors are in Oklahoma City taking on a Thunder team that also likes to play small, so Green should be a full go for the start in the middle. In three starts at center, Green is averaging 20.0 rebounds + assists (RA). The reason to play the RA as opposed to either stat individually is likely regression in both stats that should lead to a wash in the RA category. Green is averaging 12.3 rebounds on only 15.7 rebounding chances but 7.7 assists on 17.0 potential assists. Just by looking at normal conversion rates, the rebounds should go down as the assists go up. Green has gone over this prop in each game he has started at center.

Golden State has been brutal on the road this season but should be engaged with having multiple days off before this game and being only one game in front of the Thunder in the West. They are one game apart but the Warriors are in sixth and the Thunder are in 11th. The standard size disadvantage for Green also should not exist because Oklahoma City will likely be starting 6-foot-6 Kenrich Williams in the middle. That should help Green with his edge on the boards and can use physicality more than usual to help create space for his shooters. Due to the lack of size, the Thunder are allowing the seventh-most rebounds to centers in the last two weeks but are league-average in allowing assists.

With the skill set of Draymond Green and the Golden State system, getting to the needed number on the assist side is very feasible, especially if the conversion rate on potential assists regresses at all. The floor is so high for Green with the role while being in the middle that chasing the upside of this prop is much more valuable than the prop suggests.

Risk: 1.03 units on Caesars to win 1 unit. (Playable to -120)

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