2022 NCAA Tournament: March Madness Cinderella Teams

The 2022 NCAA Tournament is ready to roll!

With four games tonight and tomorrow, the field of 68 will condense to 64 teams before the opening round starts in full on Thursday at 12:15 pm. Bracket pools are quickly being submitted across the country, with college basketball fans trying to analyze which teams will reach the Final Four in New Orleans. A critical aspect of a successful bracket is predicting this year's "Cinderella" teams.

I define a March Madness Cinderella team as a squad seeded as 10th overall or lower that has a chance for multiple wins in the tournament. First-round upsets are wonderful, but the true essence of a Cinderella is a team that has staying power in this tournament and can make multiple memories for college basketball fans.

You can't win your March Madness Bracket pool in the opening rounds, but you certainly can lose it. It's important to get a balance of first-round upsets and bullet-proof favorites that have staying power throughout the tournament. Today, we take a look at our favorite 2022 March Madness Cinderellas who have the ability to win their first-round game, and possibly more.

Which teams will have that upset slipper fit? My picks are below.

2022 NCAA Tournament Betting Strategy & Picks

2022 March Madness Cinderellas

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West Region

No. 13 Seed Vermont (+5.5, PointsBet)

There is upset history with the Catamounts, who pulled off one of the legendary opening-round victories in NCAA Tournament history when they upset No. 4 seed Syracuse in 2005. Vermont is led by long-time head coach John Becker, who always has the Catamounts competitive in these spots. In both 2017 and 2019, Vermont held late leads against far superior programs (Purdue and Florida State) before succumbing late.

This year's Vermont team dominated the America East Conference, ranking first across the board in almost every major metric. When compared on a national scale, the Catamounts' Cinderella profile looks even stronger. They rank third overall in college basketball at two-point efficiency (58.9%), while sitting in the top 20 at two-point defense (45.2% allowed). They are not facing an imposing front line, with both teams ranking outside the top 215 teams in average height. Vermont also is the No.1 overall defensive rebounding team in the country, which will challenge an inefficient Razorbacks team on offense. Arkansas is shooting just 30.7% (313th overall) from beyond the arc and finished the year 13th in the SEC in two-point efficiency at just 47.7% on the interior.

Playing in Buffalo is yet another advantage for a Vermont team that has won 21 of their last 22 games. Their only loss was a 75-74 overtime loss at Hartford, playing without two-time America East Player of the Year, Ryan Davis (17.2 PPG, 5.7 RPG). This year's list of Cinderellas must start with the well-coached and efficient Catamounts.

No. 11 Seed Notre Dame (-0.5, DraftKings)

The play-in game winner always gets hot, and my pick in the West Region is the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. With the exception of the 2019 tournament, the winner of one of the play-in games has always advanced to the Round of 32 or better. In both 2011 and 2021, winners of the play-in game advanced all the way to the Final Four. Notre Dame fits the profile of a team that can absolutely make another deep run in the tournament.

They are a veteran team, with a majority of juniors and seniors contributing big minutes such as senior Yale-transfer Paul Atkinson (12.3 PPG, 7.0 RPG) and junior Nate Laszewski (9.2 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 46% 3P). Freshman guard Blake Wesley (14.6 PPG, 3.6 RPG) and junior Prentiss Hubb (9.1 PPG, 4.0 APG) give the Irish one of the most explosive backcourts in recent history. Notre Dame was the No. 1 ACC team in three-point efficiency, shooting 39.6% from deep against conference opponents. The Irish also minimize offensive turnovers and rank Top-40 in the nation in defensive rebounding.

Notre Dame is a bad matchup for a turnover-prone Rutgers team and could certainly beat an Alabama team riding a three-game losing streak. With a 66-62 home victory over Kentucky on their resume, the Irish fit the exact profile of this year's March Madness Cinderella.

No. 10 Seed Davidson (+1.5, BetMGM)

The Wildcats profile similarly to Vermont as a highly-efficient offensive team led by a veteran head coach in Bob McKillop. Just like the Catamounts, the Wildcats limit turnovers, shoot well from the interior and perimeter, and rank among the nation's elite in defensive rebounding. Davidson is eighth overall in defensive rebounding efficiency, per KenPom.

The Wildcats are led by point guard Foster Loyer (16.3 PPG, 44.5% 3P), who is in a huge revenge spot against his former team, Michigan State. Davidson shoots 38.5% from beyond the arc, eighth-best in the nation, and shoots almost 76% from the free-throw line. The tournament history with Steph Curry is well-documented, but the Wildcats also put a major scare into Kentucky back in 2018, holding a one-point lead late in the second half. Davidson would certainly not be intimidated by a potential second-round matchup with No. 2-seeded Duke, especially after the Wildcats tallied a 79-78 semi-away win over Alabama in December.

A veteran team, with a great coach, that shoots well from deep, is the quintessential Cinderella profile. Watch out for the Davidson Wildcats.

South Region

No. 13 Seed Chattanooga (+7.5, FanDuel)

Mid-major programs like Chattanooga can struggle in the opening round because of an expected disadvantage in the post. However, the Mocs are better equipped than most schools to battle No. 4 seed Illinois and 7-foot-0, 285-pound center Kofi Cockburn.

Chattanooga is fortunate to have Kansas-transfer Silvio De Sousa (11.1 PPG, 7.1 RPG) patrolling the interior. The former five-star prospect is a critical chess piece for head coach Lamont Paris, for a Mocs team that brings the best overall defense in the Southern Conference. Malachi Smith (20.1 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 41.5% 3P) and David Jean-Baptiste (14.7 PPG, 37.4% 3P) are both explosive scorers who can light up the scoreboard from deep. The Mocs also have a critical defensive characteristic for multiple wins: Elite three-point defense. Chattanooga holds their opponents to just 30.6% from deep, ranking Top-36 in the nation, per KenPom. Despite the presence of Cockburn, the Illini rely on their three-point shooting for over 36% of their points.

Chattanooga's strong defensive presence and offensive balance would be a formidable opponent against either No. 5 Houston or No. 12 UAB in the second round. This Mocs team has won nine of their last 11 games and has an impressive non-conference victory over UAB. Illinois better be careful on Friday against a dangerous and confident Chattanooga squad.

Midwest Region

No. 12 Seed South Dakota State (+3, PointsBet)

Arriving from the Summit League, head coach Eric Henderson brings the country's top offensive team to Buffalo, NY, to face the No. 4-seeded Providence Friars. The Jackrabbits are flying high on a 21-game winning streak, and shoot an electrifying 44.2% from three-point range. South Dakota State is not great on defense, but rank in the top 50 in defensive rebounding efficiency and limit offensive turnovers.

The Jackrabbits will need to limit Providence big man Nate Watson (13.8 PPG, 5.4 RPG), who will often play smaller than his 6-foot-10, 260-pound frame. The winner of this game will face either No. 5 Iowa or No. 12 Richmond, both of which are devoid of a dominant post presence. As a No. 12 seed in 2018, the Jackrabbits put quite a scare into No. 5 seed Ohio State, and also battled No. 1 Gonzaga well in the prior 2017 tournament.

The South Dakota State offense is quite a sight to behold, bringing the No. 1 overall effective field goal percentage offense. Don't be surprised to see the Jackrabbits still playing in the second weekend of the tournament.

No. 10 Seed Miami (+2, PointsBet)

The Hurricanes were the most under-seeded team in this year's tournament. Miami has no problem playing road games, with true road wins at Duke (No. 2 seed), Virginia Tech (ACC Tournament Champions), and Wake Forest (16-2 at home). The Hurricanes struggle on the interior, ranking just 212th in average height. However, they compensate with intense defensive pressure that brought the Hurricanes to the top spot in the ACC in defensive turnover percentage.

Seniors Kameron McGusty (17.6 PPG, 37.3% 3P) and Charlie Moore (12.6 PPG, 37.4% 3P) are veteran guards that can score from deep and are complemented by slashing guard Isaiah Wong (15.2 PPG). With a win at Duke, the Hurricanes would not be intimated in a second-round battle with an Auburn team that has lost three of their last six contests.

Any team with Jim Larranaga as their head coach is a legitimate threat to wear that year's NCAA Tournament glass slipper. This Hurricanes team is under-seeded and if they can navigate the imposing frontline of USC, they are a legitimate Sweet 16 threat.

East Region

No. 12 Seeds Wyoming/Indiana

Again, the play-in team is always dangerous, and I love either of these two No. 12 seeds to beat an overrated Saint Mary's team on Thursday. Both the Cowboys and Hoosiers feature strong big men in Trayce Jackson-Davis (18.1 PPG, 8.2 RPG) and Graham Ike (19.6 PPG, 9.6 RPG). Both teams limit turnovers and are excellent defensive rebounding teams. Wyoming brings two elite guards in versatile Hunter Maldonado (18.4 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 6.3 APG) and sharpshooter Drake Jeffries (10.5 PPG, 42% 3P). Indiana has the No.1 overall adjusted defensive rating in Big 10 play, and also ranks seventh in the nation in two-point defense, allowing opponents to shoot just 43.4% on the interior.

Saint Mary's has only four Quadrant I wins this season, and all came within the West Coast Conference. Either the Cowboys or Hoosiers have the star power and strong defense to tally another 12 vs. 5 first-round upset. Given UCLA's struggles this season, a Sweet 16 trip for either team is also very possible.

I love the winner of this game to advance to the Round of 32. Since most bracket pools fail to include picking this game as a requisite, just wait for tonight's final score, and give strong consideration to putting that team through to the second round.

For the most up-to-date picks check out my Twitter and subscribe to our Discord. This sheet from Dan Rivera tracks all my betting picks (and those from the rest of the betting staff) on the year. Just click on the tab with my name on it for the results.

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