2021 3M Open Preview
After being spoiled by seven major tournaments in the past 11 months, the golfing world now has to wait over 260 days until the next one. Coming off an unflappable performance by Collin Morikawa at The Open Championship across the pond, the PGA Tour heads to the upper midwest and the 3M Open. As we begin the final stretch of the 2020-2021 season, and the usual weaker fields that come with it, there is still an enormous amount on the line. Many players will be motivated to either qualify or better position themselves for the upcoming FedExCup playoffs. Though this week's tournament may feel like a bit of a letdown, money is still money. With great research and preparation, there is no shortage of opportunities in finding edges with our betting selections this week.
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Course Details and Stats
- Par: 71
- Length: 7,413 yards
- Architect: Arnold Palmer
- Average Score Relative to Par: -1.30 (9th-easiest in Tour rotation)
- Grasses: Fairway - Bentgrass; Greens - Bentgrass; Rough - Bluegrass/Fescue 3”
- Greens Size - 6,500 square feet
- Greens Speed - 12 stimpmeter (Average)
- Field Size - 156 players
- Cut Line - Top 65 players and ties
- Strength of Field: 222 (350 is average)
*My modeling is built around the PGA’s relatively new Strokes Gained data, which is divided into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG) and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance.
Field and Course Preview
With most of the world's best players either resting up for next week's Olympic competition in Tokyo or preparing for the WGC event in two weeks, the 156-man field tees off in Blaine, Minnesota lacking some star power. In fact, only eight of the top 50 players in the world rankings are participating. Second-ranked Dustin Johnson leads the way with betting odds at +700. Ninth-ranked Louis Oosthuizen (+1500) is, surprisingly, also in the field. Coming off another disappointing Sunday in a major tournament, many thought he would withdraw from the 3M, but as of Tuesday evening, he is still active on the tournament roster. Behind him are 13th-ranked Patrick Reed (+1900), 19th-ranked Tony Finau (+1600) and 38th-ranked (and 2019 3M winner) Matthew Wolff (+3300). Similar to the Rocket Mortgage and John Deere Classic, we will have to dig deep to find value plays as this projects to be another potentially volatile tournament where literally almost anyone can win.
As we get into the course, there are a couple of reasons for that volatility. First off, located in the "Land of 10,000 Lakes", TPC Twin Cities is a Par 71, 7,431-yard course that has 13 water hazards directly in play. As the course's main defense, nine of these hazards will mentally challenge golfers on their tee shots. Stray drives that land in the wet stuff tends to lead to a bogey or worse. We will get into this more below, but we definitely want to value players who are not only accurate off the tee but who have also had past success on other courses with high "water danger". With winning scores at both previous editions averaging at 20-under par, TPC Twin Cities is one of the easier courses on Tour. While the water danger lowers the fairway accuracy to just slightly above average, fairways are still quite wide, and GIR% here is third easiest on Tour. Wide fairways and accessible greens shrink the gap between the most and least talented players, leading to potential longshots rising up the leaderboard. Though the three Par 5s are each between 550-600 yards, each is very reachable in two shots, leading to numerous eagle chances. Other than the Scrambling% being slightly tougher, there is not one main statistic that is not easier than the Tour average. With most players hitting the green, the 3" rough is never much of a factor. The relatively flat bentgrass greens are average-sized and usually get rave reviews as some of the smoothest running on Tour. Players who keep their ball dry and show even an average approach game should have no trouble gaining birdie opportunities, which, you guessed it, tends to lead to another putting contest.
The weather throughout much of the summer has been unusually dry until just recently where over an inch of rain has fallen in the past week. The forecast for the week calls for mostly hot and dry conditions. Winds do appear to be in the 15 MPH range on Thursday and Friday, with gusts even higher.
3M Open Key Splits, Player Selection and Final Model
With generous fairways and greens ripe for flag-hunting, another birdie-fest could ensue. From my point of view, this is basically a contest of who can keep it dry off the tee followed by mid-irons target practice into susceptible flags on the greens. Then it simply comes down to the player who can covert the most putts. With all that in mind, the exclusive-to-this-site "Core 4" model for the week includes my sub-models for SG: OTT, SG: APP and SG: Putting, along with my "Scoring" model. Here are the complete player rankings for the "Core 4" model.
Core 4 Model
The closer this tournament gets, the more I believe the SG: OTT model for the week carries more importance. Water danger comes into play on nine out of 14 drives. Numerous players I have spoken with over the years speak about how the water is a mental obstacle and can have a negative on even the best players. I also think distance is very underrated here as it is the fourth-longest course at 104.7 yards per par stroke. The OTT model combines current form, Good Drive%, Driving Distance and past history on other "Water Danger" courses. This sub-model along with numerous other important pieces of data are posted each week on my Twitter account.
Related to the numerous lakes on the course, another important split I analyzed this week is the inaugural SG: High Water Danger sub-model. I gathered SG data on every course on Tour going back to 2018 that had at least 10 holes with water directly in play. This gives some historical perspective on which players are more comfortable on these types of courses with a lot of water. Other than the other SG and Hole Breakdown sub-models (which will be part of the final model every single week), others include course history at TPC Twin Cities, SG on other "Easy Scoring/Weak Field" event courses, SG on Midwest courses, and the most important one for the week, the "Scoring" model. Again, please check my Twitter account for more details and descriptions on each of these models. Also, feel very free to message me with thoughts or questions at any time.
Before I present the "Final Model", I am looking to target players this week who are the strongest ball-strikers, both off-the-tee and on approach shots. You should not shy away from players who struggle around the green with their short game as that will not have much impact this week. We have numerous players in the field who are excellent ball-strikers but horrible putters. Players like Keegan Bradley, Emiliano Grillo and Doug Ghim fit this category. Whether for betting purposes or DFS, the key part is trying to select the ones who can put it all together by actually gaining strokes putting. In the end, I simply want players who can score in what should be another midwestern birdie-fest. The "Scoring" model includes Birdie or Better (BoB)%, Par 5 Scoring and Putting from 10-20 feet. One last angle to ponder when considering players, especially for finishing position bets, is their current ranking in the FedExCup points race. Numerous players in this tournament will be scratching and clawing to finish as high as possible, and hoping to gain as many points as they can to get into the Top 125 of the standings.
Final Model
Outright Betting Selections
I've been asked about "units" a few times now, so let me start there. For those new to the world of sports betting, the beauty of using units is that it can be whatever amount you want. Personally, one unit for me is about $25. Yes, I am somewhat more aggressive with my outright selections because of the confidence I have in both my model and in my ability to measure the winning equity of each player. I believe that in many weeks I can narrow down the potential winner to around 6-8 selections, wagering in the area of five units total. I also have perhaps too much confidence that my finishing position bets will more than make up for the weeks I'm unsuccessful with my outrights. All that being said, I am a "data" guy, not a professional tout. My picks are based almost exclusively on the numbers. For those of you following and wagering along, my goal is to help you understand how each of these separate data splits all come together to paint a single picture—which is the "Final Model". Again, feel free to ask questions at any time.
*Betting lines accurate at the time of publication.
Top Tier
Even though both are in the top seven of the model, coming off an emotional and grueling Open Championship, I believe the smart choice is to fade both Dustin Johnson and Louis Oosthuizen at short odds. Instead, I will start my picks with the enigmatic Tony Finau at +1600 (1u) on FanDuel. As one of the players who is most known for finishing everywhere high on leaderboards except for first place, I will dip my toes in the Finau pool because I honestly believe this could be "the week". Having not won a tournament since the 2016 Puerto Rico Open, he is well past due. With three top-15 finishes in majors over the past three months, combined with a weaker field to take advantage of, I have high confidence in this selection. Finau finished third here last year and 23rd the year before. He ranks first in the field tee-to-green (T2G) over the past six months, first in SG: Midwest, first on "Easy Scoring" courses, and third on courses with "High Water Danger". He is also 10th in the all-important SG: APP category. I will also ride with Patrick Reed at +1900 (1u) on FanDuel. Having missed the cut at The Open, Reed now sits in eighth place in the Ryder Cup standings. Why does this matter? Only the top six automatically qualify. Even though it would be a shock if Reed was not selected anyways, he is trying to finish as high as possible to guarantee his spot. And though he doesn't usually thrive in these types of high-scoring, weak-field events, I can see him playing very motivated here. One of the most talented golfers in the world, he finished in the top spot in the "Final Model", finishing in the top five in six different categories.
Mid-Tier
I have four players that greatly interest me in this range, starting with Matthew Wolff (.75u) at +3300 on PointsBet. The inaugural champion at this event back in 2019, Wolff didn't play last week at The Open, instead choosing to remain in the states and prepare for this week where he knows he has a great chance to win. Coming off a 15th-place finish at the U.S. Open, he has struggled in his last two events. He loves this course, however, as he also finished 12th here last year. A streaky player and birdie-maker, he is more of a "gut feel/win equity" selection than a "data" pick as he finished 29th in the "Final Model". Also in this area, I like Sergio Garcia (.75u) at +3500. Garcia's ability to stay out of trouble off-the-tee is key here for me. While he struggles with the putter, the experience, world-class talent and scoring ability he brings are well worth a selection in this price range. My next choice here is the popular Bubba Watson (.6u), which you can find at +4000 on WilliamHill. Bubba has been playing very good golf over the past couple of months, contending in almost every tournament he has participated in (other than the last two majors). His ability to shape the ball off-the-tee should help him stay out of trouble on all the water danger holes. Once on the fairway, he has gained over seven shots on approach the last two weeks, which is another great sign that shows his game is trending upwards. My final choice is Keegan Bradley at +4400 (0.5u) on FanDuel. The adage remains constant. If he could just putt he might be one of the best players in the world. He comes into the field ranked first in both OTT and APP. That type of ball-striking is on the level of Collin Morikawa and is almost unheard of. But then you check the putting rank and see "89" next to it. One reason I have some confidence this week is that bentgrass is his best putting surface, and also the fact that he has positive SG putting numbers in six of his last 10 events.
Longshots
My first of two longshots this week is Hank Lebioda at +5000 (0.5u) on DraftKings. Even though he is still a relative unknown by many in the golfing world, his game has been on fire as of late. His last three events have seen him finish eighth, fourth and fifth respectively. He has good course history here and in the model he finished seventh in APP, ninth in the Midwest and first in the "Core 4". My final pick is a player who always seems grossly underrated in Lanto Griffin at +7500 (.4u) on FanDuel. About as consistent as they come, Griffin has tasted winning before at the 2019 Houston Open. He ranks 10th overall in the model and grades out well in almost every category. Trending upward again after a mini rough patch, he has gained over eight strokes total from the last two tournaments and is a very good fit on this course to have a huge week.
Finishing Positions
Top 10
Top 20
- Patrick Reed +110 (2u) FanDuel
- Cameron Tringale +150 (1u) FanDuel
- Sergio Garcia +150 (1u) FanDuel
- Matthew Wolff +160 (1u) FanDuel
- Emiliano Grillo +175 (1u) FanDuel
- Keegan Bradley +175 (1u) PointsBet
Top 30
- Cameron Davis +115 (1u) FanDuel
- Maverick McNealy +130 (1u) FanDuel
- Rickie Fowler +140 (1u) FanDuel
- Doug Ghim +150 (1u) FanDuel
- Hank Lebioda +160 (2u) FanDuel
- Lanto Griffin +210 (1u) FanDuel
Top 40
- Stewart Cink +100 (1.1u) DraftKings
- Ryan Moore +115 (1u) FanDuel
- Gary Woodland +125 (1u) FanDuel
- Jhonattan Vegas +125 (1u) FanDuel
- Troy Merritt +140 (1u) FanDuel
- Pat Perez +190 (1u) FanDuel
For the most up-to-date picks, or if you have any questions or comments, check out my Twitter and subscribe to our Discord. This sheet from Dan Rivera tracks all my betting picks (and those from the rest of the betting staff) on the year. Just click on the tab with my name on it for the results.
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