Final Thoughts for the Last Draft Weekend
This article is for those subscribers that have one or more drafts still to go, but it should also serve as a potential preview of Week 1 waivers since I’ll be discussing several late-risers who may have gone undrafted. These players have seen a spike in their ADP in the last week or two due to injury or to winning their respective camp battles. (Jeff Miller will be publishing a pre-Week 1 Waiver Wire Watch early next week.)
I pulled ADP from MFL10 best balls over the last two days and compared it to the previous week to identify those players going a lot earlier now than they were only a few days ago. If I mention a percentage, it means that the player’s new ADP has risen that percentage in the last week.
Starting with the running back position, the biggest mover was Adrian Peterson (+39%, pick 112), who is now going in the early 10th round. The Redskins signed Peterson after Derrius Guice tore his ACL. Washington’s intentions for Peterson became clear in the team’s third preseason game, where he dominated first-team snaps and touches (11 carries, 56 yards) with Chris Thompson sitting out. It now appears that Peterson will handle early-down work with Thompson assuming his usual third-down/hurry-up role. In six games with the Cardinals last year, Peterson turned an average of 23.0 touches into 86 yards and 0.33 touchdowns per game. That’s poor efficiency, but he proved that he could handle the workload, at least for a while. (Arizona eventually placed him on injured reserve with a neck injury.)
I still believe that Thompson is the Washington back to own, especially in PPR formats, but Peterson does have some appeal as a standard league volume/touchdown play given his 10th round ADP. Owners need to understand that he’s no longer a 4.5+ YPC runner and will suffer from serious game flow problems when the Redskins fall behind since he doesn’t offer much as a receiver.
Continue reading about five Running Backs and five Wide Receiver's on John's radar in his final drafts before Week 1...
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