DFS Tight End Analysis: Week 7

Oct 19, 2017

DFS is a game of exploiting a lot of small edges, therefore all options at each position should be explored every week. Below is an analysis of this week’s tight ends on the main slate, including the upside and downside of the most viable players on the slate with explanations for how you might adjust your approach to the position depending on the game type. The chalk and any referenced ownership percentages are derived from the 4for4 DFS Ownership Projections.

Chalk

Tight end ownership is concentrated near the top of pricing this week, with three of the four most popular tight ends priced as a stud on at least one of the sites. Because the position is so volatile, it’s okay to go against the grain, even in cash games, especially if it’s in order to save salary to pay up for a more predictable position.

Until further notice, going after the Browns with tight ends will be a popular strategy and Delanie Walker ($5,800 FD/$5,900 DK) tops this week’s ownership projections on both sites. When adjusted for strength of schedule, Cleveland ranks last in fantasy points allowed to the position, as they are one of two teams to allow at least 400 yards and 5 touchdowns to tight ends on the season. Only two tight ends have accounted for a higher percentage of team targets this year than Walker and he’s seen at least a quarter of the Titans’ targets in the last two games that Marcus Mariota has played. While Walker’s target share is high, overall volume continues to be a concern—eight tight ends are averaging more targets per game and Walker has only 2 red zone targets this year.
The only team that’s allowed more total points to tight ends than the Browns? The Giants. Jimmy Graham ($5,800/$4,900) will be a popular option coming off of a bye week. Tight ends are averaging over 9 targets per game against the Giants and no team has allowed more touchdowns to the position. Seattle is favored by 5.5 points and no team has thrown at a higher rate inside the red zone than the Seahawks, where Graham has averaged a target per game.
New England is favored by three at home with the highest implied point total of the week (29) in a game with the highest over/under (55). This game is only on the main slate on FanDuel, but Rob Gronkowski ($8,500) will garner plenty of attention, even with his lofty price tag. Gronk is one of two tight ends averaging at least 8 targets per game and no tight end has more looks in the red zone this year. Atlanta does rank in the top half of the league in tight end aFPA and no team has allowed fewer fantasy points per target to the position than the Falcons.