Week 11 at New Orleans Saints
The Eagles are riding the struggle bus lately, but a stop at Superdome station is always a good place to cure what ails in fantasy. A suspected shootout Sunday has the Eagles with an implied team total of more than 23 points, despite being eight-point underdogs. Plus, the Saints are a pass funnel defense, ranking fourth in aFPA to RBs but dead-last in aFPA to WRs. Marshon Lattimore hasn't been the shut-down corner he was last season, but Jeffery's back-to-back games with less than 50 yards, has us concerned enough to downgrade him to low-end WR2 in Week 11.
Week 10 at Oakland Raiders
The Eagles have an implied team total of 25.25 points this week - respectable, but not elite. Philadelphia is a touchdown favorite at home, which should lead to positive game script. With the Eagles adding Golden Tate into the mix this week, it's hard to predict what impact (if any) that will have on Alshon Jeffery. Before a tough match-up with Jacksonville, Jeffery saw at least eight targets in every game. In his only true game action against Dallas last year, Jeffery went for 67 yards and a score. Dallas does rank top five in aFPA to WRs, but we still like him as a WR2 this week.
Week 8 at Jacksonville Jaguars (London)
The Eagles go across the pond to take on the Jaguars in their second home with an implied team total of just 23.5 points with the second-lowest over/under of Week 8 for this game. The Jaguars are top five in aFPA to WRs. For these reasons, Alshon Jeffery is downgraded to a low-end WR2 this week, despite his very promising target share in recent weeks. It will be difficult for him to have a big game against this secondary, but his floor should be safe due to his target volume.
Week 7 vs. Carolina Panthers
Here are Alshon Jeffery's targets each game since returning from injury: nine, eight, 12. Jeffery and tight end Zach Ertz have become the focal point of the passing game, much more than we saw last season. With Carolina just 15th in aFPA to WRs, Jeffery can again be started with confidence, as the Eagles come off a mini bye week.
Week 6 at New York Giants (Thursday)
Going on the road for Thursday Night Football is always a tough ask. Facing the Giants, who rank 4th in aFPA to WRs doesn't make it any easier. The game having the fifth lowest over/under in Vegas this week isn't promising. Jeffery was shut down by CB Xavier Rhodes and the Vikings secondary last week, but his target share remained intact. 17 targets the past two games means he's still a viable FLEX for Week 6.
Week 5 vs. Minnesota Vikings
The Eagles have an average implied team total this week, and Alshon Jeffery is likely to see CB Xavier Rhodes in coverage. That's why his 4for4 ranking among WRs this week isn't higher, despite Minnesota having a poor aFPA to WRs ranking of 26th. In his last five games against the Vikings, these are the lines Jeffery has put up against Rhodes and company: 10-116-1 (15), 1-10-1 (5), 4-63-1 (8), 1-10-0 (3), 5-85-2 (5). That's very promising, as he's scored in four of those games. Fortune favors the bold, Jeffery owners.
Fantasy Upside
Jeffery finished as the WR19 last season playing through a shoulder injury for much of the second half of the year. The return of Carson Wentz and a contract extension solidifies Jeffery's role in this offense as a WR2 candidate again in 2018.
Fantasy Downside
Jeffery reportedly could start the season on the PUP list, which would keep him out for six weeks. That should absolutely be a red flag at his ADP, in addition to some potential negative touchdown regression. Jeffery has failed to reach 1,000 yards in three consecutive seasons and now sits in an offense that prefers to spread the ball around. Jeffery will never get elite targets in Philadelphia. If the offense regresses, Jeffery will regress with it.
2018 Bottom Line
Jeffery's recovery makes his fifth-round ADP concerning. His recovery should be monitored closely for those with later drafts. For those in earlier drafts, there are plenty of other safer WRs with no Week 1 status concerns who have the same upside as Jeffery.
Super Bowl vs. New England Patriots
What matters in this different one-game format is not so much how many points we project each player for but how much each player costs per point. In FanDuel's half-point PPR format, here's how we value the wide receivers in terms of dollar/FanDuel point: Brandin Cooks>Alshon Jeffery>Nelson Agholor>Danny Amendola>Torrey Smith>Chris Hogan>Mack Hollins>Phillip Dorsett.
As for DraftKings' full PPR scoring, here's how we value the receivers in terms of dollar/DraftKings point: Brandin Cooks>Nelson Agholor>Alshon Jeffery>Danny Amendola>Torrey Smith>Chris Hogan>Mack Hollins>Phillip Dorsett.
NFC Conference Championship vs. Minnesota Vikings
Alshon Jeffery makes for an interesting contrarian play this week in DFS. He's had success against the Vikings, with a career line of 45-685-7 against Minnesota, the best he's done against any opponent. This, of course, will require Nick Foles taking shots on the outside, which he has done far less than Carson Wentz.
Divisional Round vs. Atlanta Falcons
The Eagles have the third-lowest implied team total in Vegas this week at 19 points as an underdog. The Falcons are more beatable through the air (19th in aFPA vs. WRs) compared to the ground (first in aFPA vs. RBs). The problem for Alshon Jeffery is he's been Nick Foles' third-most targeted pass-catcher behind Zach Ertz and Nelson Agholor, averaging less than 11 yards per reception. A projected negative game script could help, but Foles has looked more in between the numbers for his pass attempts. Jeffery is a risky play in the divisional round.
